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Editors' picks

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 08th DEC, 2022ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $1218 Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1211 on 07th Dec, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar moving into a consolidation channel above the $1200 handle today in the European trading session. We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish trend. The Williams percent range indicator is back over -50 in the 2-hour time frame. We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $1218 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets. ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1232 and moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1234 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1235 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared. The relative strength index is at 53 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for Ether and the continuation of the consolidation phase in the markets. We can see both the bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the daily time frame. Both the relative strength index and the average directional index are indicating neutral levels, which means that the prices are expected to remain in a narrow range in the short-term range. Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal. Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1300 to $1400 in the short-term range. ETH is now trading below its 100 hourly simple and 200 hourly exponential moving averages. Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1218 mark The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish ETH continues to remain above the $1200 levels The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1218 ETHUSD is now moving into a mild bullish channel with the price trading above the $1200 handle in the European trading session today. ETH is now preparing to enter into a consolidation phase above the $1230 handle, after which fresh upside waves are expected. ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1234 and an intraday low of 1223 in the Asian trading session today. We have seen a bullish opening in the markets this week. The daily RSI is printing at 47 indicating a neutral demand for Ether in the long-term range. The key support levels to watch are $1191, which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%, and $1215 at which price crosses 18 Day Moving Average. ETH has increased by 0.09% with a price change of 1.07$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 4.698 billion USD. We can see a decrease of 24.01% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be Normal. The Week Ahead ETH price continues to remain under mild bullish pressure and the prices are expected to remain in a bullish traction this week. After the current wave of consolidation gets over, we are expecting fresh buying pressure above the $1200 handle which will push the price above the $1300 level. The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions. The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1199 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls. The weekly outlook is projected at $1400 with a consolidation zone of $1350. Technical Indicators: The relative strength index (14): is at 53.20 indicating a NEUTRAL. The STOCH (9,6): is at 69.01 indicating a BUY The MACD (12,26): is at 0.350 indicating a BUY Bull/bear power (13): is at 1.498 indicating a BUY LTCUSD: Hammer Pattern Above $75.38 Litecoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum last week and after touching a low of $75.38 on 02nd Dec, the prices started to move upwards against the US dollar touching a high of $83.87 on 05th Dec. The prices of Litecoin have corrected lower due to short selling, but a rebound in the prices is expected after the consolidation wave gets over. We can clearly see a hammer pattern above the $75.38 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets. Litecoin is now trading below its 100 hourly simple moving averages and below its 200 hourly simple moving averages. The price of LTCUSD is just below its pivot level of 75.86 The relative strength index is at 54.25 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for Litecoin and the shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets. We can see the formation of both bullish harami and bullish harami cross patterns in the 15-minute time frame. Litecoin touched an intraday high of $77.30 and an intraday low of $74.54 in the Asian trading session today. The prices of Litecoin continue to remain above some of the moving averages, which are now giving a BUY signal at current market levels of 74.98. The RSI is indicating a neutral level, which means that the prices are expected to move towards the consolidation phase in the short-term range. The short-term outlook for Litecoin has turned mildly bullish. Most of the technical indicators are giving a buy signal Litecoin: bullish reversal seen above the $75.38 levels The STOCHRSI is giving an overbought signal The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility Litecoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $75.38 The price of Litecoin is moving into a downside correction wave above the $74.00 handle and after this we are expecting fresh upsides at $80 and $85 levels. The commodity channel Index is giving a bullish divergence signal in the 4-hour time frame. We can see the formation of a bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in the 15-minute time frame. We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week. The price of LTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 81.12 and Fibonacci resistance level of 85.77 after which the path towards $90 will get cleared. Litecoin is now facing its resistance zone at $78.45 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls and at $79.17 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 80%. The daily RSI is printing at 54 which is indicating a neutral demand for Litecoin and the continuation of the consolidation wave in the medium-term range. LTCUSD has decreased by 2.21% with a price change of 1.70$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 0.495 billion USD. Litecoin’s trading volume has decreased by 19.77% compared to yesterday which appears to be normal. The Week Ahead The prices of Litecoin continue to move into a narrow range between the $70 and $85 levels which are the consolidation levels in the 30-minute time frame. We are expecting more upsides towards the $80 and $85 levels, after the current downside wave gets exhausted. Litecoin is expected to enter rally mode next week. The price of Litecoin needs to remain above the important support level of $71.82 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%. The short-term outlook for Litecoin has turned bullish, the medium-term outlook is bullish, and the long-term outlook is neutral at present market conditions. The weekly outlook is projected at $85 with a consolidation zone of $80. Technical Indicators: The STOCH (9,6): is at 61.52 indicating a BUY The commodity channel index (14): is at 179.55 indicating a BUY The bull/bear power (13): is at 28.93 indicating a BUY The Williams percent range: is at -25.82 indicating a BUY Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
Editors' picks
4
What Makes this Yield Curve Inversion so Different?An Inverted yield curve in the context of a 2% inflation environment holds a different meaning than, an Inverted Yield Curve in a high inflation environment...... Market Expectations of Disinflation led to this Inverted Yield Curve: The Nominal Inversion of the yield curve is caused by the expectation that inflation will fall steadily. Believe it or not an Inverted Yield Curve is the best case scenario for the Fed. A Nominal Inversion during a high inflation period shows that markets have confidence/belief in the Fed's Policy to bring inflation down to 2%. Most of the inversion seen in the yield curve today is nominal.... The Nominal Yield Curve vs. the Real Yield Curve: Nominal Yield – Real Yield = Breakeven Inflation Rate. Real Yield = Nominal Yield - Breakeven Inflation Rate The Breakeven Inflation Rate represents what inflation would have to be in order for investors to “break even” when buying a bond. The general thought process is: If you believe the inflation rate will be greater than the breakeven rate buy Treasury Inflation-Protected (TIP) bonds. Notice how the Yield Curve for Nominal Yields is a lot more Inverted than the Yield Curve for Real Yields. Hence, the inversion in today's Yield Curve is mainly nominal. Below I calculate out the Real Yield for the treasuries with Breakeven TIP Data from FRB St.Louis. Nominal Break-even US02Y: 4.3% - (RealYield) = 3.0% = 1.3% RealYield for US02Y US05Y: 3.6% - (RealYield) = 2.3% = 1.3% RealYield for US05Y US07Y: 3.6% - (RealYield) = 2.4% = 1.2% RealYield for US07Y US10Y: 3.4% - (RealYield) = 2.2% = 1.2% RealYield for US10Y US10Y/US02Y Nominal Yield Curve: 3.4% - 4.3% = -0.8% (Inverted) US10Y/US02Y Real Yield Curve: 1.2% - 1.3% = -0.1% (Inverted) The bond market expects for inflation to remain above trend the next 1-2 years and decrease dramatically after that. As you can see, the nominal yield curve is very inverted even though, the real interest rate is pretty much held constant across thee curve. The Real Interest Rate remains between 1.3% and 1.2%. The Yield Curve Inversion in Nominal terms is: -0.8% and in Real Terms is: -0.1%. Partners in Crime: Unemployment and the Yield Curve: When consumers start to save more, companies start to see earnings deteriorate. In turn, they cut costs by letting workers go. The US10Y/US02Y yield curve is a proxy for Unemployment. Unemployment rises as, the market starts to expect rate cuts from the fed. It is only when the spread on the US10Y/US02Y starts trending up does unemployment start to rise. The spread of the US10Y/US02Y yield curve starts to trend upwards when the 2 year rate plummets as, markets start to price in a recession. Currently, the Yield Curve is still declining signaling that unemployment will remain low. So what does this all mean??? A recession is not as close as many people are saying. People have been calling for a recession since April. This yield curve also signifies that markets are more or less believe that the fed will engineer a soft anding and bring inflation back to the 2% target. If you don't believe the disinflationary narrative spread by the fed there is an opportunity for you to make money on what markets are mispricing. What will you do the next time a fake guru waves an inverted yield curve in your face to scare you into a subscription?
Editors' picks
12
Keep Calm and 4k OnBears don't get to convinced a sell off is near. Bulls will be buying the dip for the entire next year. 4K is the level, premium the harvest. ---- In this idea I present to you a level everyone should be aware of because my prediction is that we will end 2023 around 4k. I was browsing the SPX options chain for 2023 and 4k is by far the highest open interest across all major expires like quad witching. This shouldn't be a surprise as it has been a magnet since the Archegos margin call. I jokingly call it the Archegos Gap. But after extensive research into SLR and ON Reverse Repos it is also a major level the Fed shifted policy in 2021. Every directional shift higher or to lower from 4k has correlation with the Archegos Gap. Most notable are: Inverted Yield Curves Hyper Inflation Debt DXY The market is starting to wake up to the idea equities will be flat for the entire year.
Editors' picks
15
How does the market react after inflation peaks ? Hi guys, today I bring you an important point for macro analysis. Many believe that seeing a significant improvement in economic data, especially those linked to inflation, showing that it is slowing down is something positive, is it really? In a way, it's a positive metric when looked at in isolation, because inflation brings major disturbances to the economy, but that's a topic for another post. What matters is that the mere fact that inflation has marked a possible peak and the Fed has started to reduce interest rates does not mean that we are going to have a bottom in the market! Currently big banks are warning about the recession, and this for us, is not news, but look at this headline: "Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, talks of recession next year" But here we had already been talking about this recession for some time, after publishing a study talking about the inversion of the yield curve, in that study there was the following sentence: "According to the data available on the Federal Reserve website, the inversion of the yield curve preceded all American recessions since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967." This publication was made on the So, yes, we have a contracted recession, but what does that have to do with peak inflation? Inflation brings, as a consequence, a scenario of uncertainties in the economy, and discourages new investments from being carried out. In practice, this causes difficulties for the country's economic growth, and once we have this combined with high interest rates, growth becomes even more difficult. So, even though inflation has reached its peak, interest rates are still very high, and we continue to struggle with economic growth and this usually happens, see the chart, after inflation peaks we had big drops. Will we see something similar again? Tell me your opinion here!
Editors' picks
29
XOM - Top Is In 🧐XOM appears to be topping here at the long and shorter term Fibonacci cluster shown on the chart. The long 1:1 trend based Fibonacci extension is taken from the 3 major pivots from the bottom that defines the approximate topping area. I have been looking at this area for some time see linked thread . Shorter term there are two 2 point reverse Fibonacci extension hitting 1.272 and 1.618 just above the long term extension. This is very common that the shorter term extensions define the overshoot of the long term extension. Other clues were the Adam and Eve structure with "Adam" impulsive spike back in June forming the "BC Buying Climax" and "Eve" corrective dome showing upside impetus waning that also forms "UT UpThrust." Within the dome the inverted Wyckoff "Creek" ascending channel printed as shown in the basic Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic image on the chart. Another key chart is the XOM/USOIL pair and this is probably topping in this area with a long wicked and small bodied Shooting Star perfectly striking the 2.272 and revealing the probably reversal. Once this /USOIL pair gets moving to the downside it should get really nasty for XOM as it will be in a downtrend against USOIL and USOIL itself appears to be breaking down from a long term trendline to go continue the downtrend against dollar see linked thread . Another clue was the XOI Oil Index (that XOM is part of) that printed 2 shakeout reversal pattern Adam&Eve probes through the long term trendline. Plenty of RSI divergence also showing a probable collapse. This topped perfectly at the 1:1.13 extension which is a common phi related overshoot ratio for the 1:1. This is still a great momentum trade right and and who knows it may bounce. I actually have targets to go higher but the writing is very much on the walls here and just to show you that I have been waiting for this and have potentially shorted the top.
Editors' picks
14
Is Exxon Mobil prime for a trend reversal after 280% rally?On 8th November 2022, shares of Exxon Mobil reached a high of 114.66$, marking over a 280% increase since their lows in March 2020. The company has enjoyed this two-year lasting rally thanks to the growing prices of oil, which translated into growing corporate earnings during this period. However, with oil prices peaking in the first half of 2022 and worsening economic conditions around the globe, shares of XOM might be positioning themselves for a trend reversal. In addition to that, the U.S. government seeking to increase taxes on oil producers also does not help the situation. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action. We want to see the price break below the immediate support/resistance level and a pick-up in volume to support our thesis. With that outlined, we want to set a price target for XOM at 90$ per share. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of XOM. Volume can be seen declining for the past eight months while the price kept rising. That hints at fewer investors willing to buy the stock at elevated levels. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish but losing momentum Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of XOM and 200-day SMA. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
34
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Momentum: 2In part one, we discussed using a market momentum matrix to anticipate the business cycle, the potential inflection in the macro environment and shared the final distillation of the current momentum matrix. In part 2 we discuss how the MACD oscillator is used to build the matrix. Methodology: Individual markets and ratios are plotted in the quadrant that best describes their combination of momentum and price action. The precise point where the individual plots fall in the matrix is not nearly as important as the overall pattern of multiple plot points and the general weight of the evidence. It is important to realize that the momentum state is not always obvious. Accept that its messy and use your best judgement in deciding on quadrants. The idea is build a general view of the market and economic cycle. What defines the momentum quadrant? The monthly perspective moving average convergence divergence oscillator (MACD). The individual quadrants reflect the relationship between the 13 and 26 month exponentially smoothed averages. Quadrant One: Waning Bear: In this quadrant momentum is bearish with the shorter average below the longer average, but the difference between the two is becoming less. Momentum is still lower, but at a decreasing rate. Quadrant Two: Strong Advance: In this quadrant momentum is bullish with the shorter average above the longer average and the difference between the two is becoming greater. Momentum is higher at an increasing rate. Quadrant Three: Waning Bull: In this quadrant momentum is bullish with the shorter average above the longer average, but the difference between the two is becoming less. Momentum is still higher, but at a decreasing rate. Quadrant Four: Strong Decline: In this quadrant momentum is bearish with the shorter average below the longer average and the difference between the two is becoming greater. Momentum is lower at an increasing rate. Trading Ranges: A market in a trading range is removed from the matrix until it breaks from the range even if MACD momentum has been falling/rising for months. Recycling: It is not unusual for auctions to become overbought or oversold, lose momentum, move into a neighboring quadrant for a few months and then cycle back. When this happens, use your judgment as to which quadrant to place the auction in. This pattern most typically occurs in an market that has reached a momentum extreme in the perspective of one lower degree and typically appears only once. I think this is currently happening in equities. Bearish momentum is waning as weekly momentum became deeply oversold, but monthly price charts, in my estimation, don't support a change in trend. In part 3 we will place individual auctions into the matrix and begin to outline market relationships to the business cycle. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
26
As we approach the last Fed/ECB meetings of the year.Last week, while the Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric from ‘hiking to fight inflation at all cost’ to ‘slow the pace of rate hike’, seismic waves rolled over the markets. As we approach the last central bank meetings of the year, the ECB meets on (15th Dec), Fed on the (14th Dec). A temperature check on the expected path of rates for the 2 major central banks would give us a good sense to position ourselves. The Fed After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, one line in particular (“The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”) shifted the market’s perspective. With the USD weakening further and terminal rates repricing slower and lower than expected, markets seem to have priced in a 50-basis point hike by the Fed in its December meeting. A slowdown from the back-to-back 75 basis point hikes we have come accustomed to. As noted in the chart above the EURUSD pair has generally moved alongside the dollar direction, should the dollar continue its tumble downwards, the EURUSD is likely to trade higher. The ECB After raising rates by 75 basis points in the last meeting to 1.5%, the ECB still faces mounting inflation. Market expectations still swing between a 50 to 75 bps hike for the upcoming ECB meeting as the Eurozone still struggles with high inflation. The ECB may also have more headroom to maneuver as current rates remain below the expected terminal rate and the 200 basis points hike still pales in comparison to the Fed’s 375 basis points move. However, we do have to caveat that intricacies matter here, for example, the inflationary effects in the US are largely driven by the demand side, while in the Eurozone are driven by supply-side effects. Regardless, the next few days will remain key for any policymaker comments to guide the markets as the meeting date nears. Policy timing and direction uncertainty put the EURUSD pair on our watchlist. The last time the 2 central banking policy timelines diverged, we called it out on one of our previous ideas. You can check out here . Additionally, we spot an ascending triangle pattern on the chart which generally signifies a bullish continuation. With the previous ascending triangle breaking out in a textbook manner, we will watch if the current setup trades the same. Prices have also broken a previous support-turn-resistance level, which could prove as further conviction of the upward move. With a clear technical setup and the potential for the ECB to surprise hikes to the upside, we lean bullish on the EURUSD pair. We set our stop at the 1.0440 level, and take profit level at 1.0900, with each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.ecb.europa.eu www.federalreserve.gov
Editors' picks
Long
5
ARK Worth investing into this long-term Bullish DivergenceThe ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has been holding the 33.30 Support since the October 10 1W candle. As shown on this 1W time-frame, this is the Support that was formed on the March 16 2020 low during the COVID crash. Perhaps the most important development here is that, while the price has been on Lower Lows since June 13, the 1W RSI has been on Higher Lows, flashing a huge Bullish Divergence. Holding the 30.30 Support is a strong signal that the market may have bottomed and a strong rebound is about to begin. The first Resistance is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Q1 target for us is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which had the last major rejection on ARK (March 28). It is interesting to observe how strong Resistance (and Support) levels the Fibonacci lines have formed during this 2 year correction, especially in the upper bands. They can be used as targets later on after the 1W MA50 and MA200 break. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Editors' picks
Long
35

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Snaps

08 Dec

A little help from my friends

Criticism is an important part of improvement. Understanding what has been done wrongly is key to understanding how to do it correctly. The major tech players have certainly had their fair share of criticism recently – from how they handle data, to accusations of anti-competitive practices. But this week, an announcement by the Pentagon has reminded us that in an increasingly digitized world, society needs tech. Let’s dive in.

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ORCL
Uncle Sam’s support

A new deal shows the US is increasingly putting its faith in big tech companies for fighting the wars of the future.

CPB
That’s good soup

Like a bowl of chicken soup on a winter’s day, Campbell Soup’s earnings beat was warming investors' hearts.

ABNB
Shareholders could use a holiday

Investors in Airbnb are feeling the winter blues this morning, with the booking company dropping in Morgan Stanley’s estimation.

SUSHIUSD
Sushi ain't cheap

With crypto winter now in full swing, SushiSwap could be in trouble without some serious changes.

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Euro after a possible test of support line can reach resistanceHello my friends, today I want to talk to you about EUR/USD The Euro has formed an ascending wedge and traded inside. The price is now trading close to the support line and can go down and test it. After a possible retest, the price can bounce back and rise. I expect that the price can start to rise and reach the resistance line where I have set our goal at a level 1.0630 After reaching the goal, the price can turn its movement. Therefore, as soon as the market situation changes, I will update this idea for you. I expect such a scenario. This is an article not financial advice, always do your own research. If you still have questions, you can write it in the comments below and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your like and comment, thanks.
Long
24
PancakeSwap CAKE price is trying to break up from downtrendThe CAKEUSDT price has been in a falling trend channel since April 2021. In fact, almost immediately after "the hype CAKE" exited into the market, when the price of CAKE rose from $10 to $44 in a month, the search for a fair market price began. Looking at the chart, we can see aggressive buying of CAKEUSD from $3 After, buyers of PancakeSwap twice time bought back the price from the critical $3.60 level, giving him the status of a "mirror" Roughly speaking, we can say that a price zone of $3-5 is a zone of fair market price , which satisfies both buyers and sellers for the last six months. Therefore, in case of positive developments in the cryptocurrency market, we can expect the CAKEUSDT price to exit the falling channel. The first task of buyers is to break through and consolidate above $5.50. If this condition is met, in the medium term, you can start dreaming about growth to the region $8.75 - 9 If the wave of negativity again covers the crypto market and the price of CAKE drops below $3.60, then it is not worth buying CAKE again before $2.90-3. _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Long
34
GOLD makes a false breakoutGold. A false break-down of 1784 might push the price down. But... 1) Yesterday we saw the price fixing at 1775 and rising to the target 2) Price did not consolidate above 1784. 3) Daily analysis showed the potential for a possible break-up of the level up 4) The pullback may end up in the zone of 1775, 1780 (near the moving average). 5) High probability of the near resistance 1784 formation on the uptrend with its subsequent breakdown. I expect breakdown of resistance 1784 and growth. Target is 1803
Long
15
BTC/USDT going for a breakdown there!Hey, traders Let's take a quick look at Bitcoin guys. One thing we would like to mention is that BTC chart is looking just the same as US500 which means both of them are under big pressure. Once that trend will be broken we might see another nice drop on the markets overall to the lower levels so we are going to load some sell orders soon guys. What do you think? If you like ideas provided by our team you can show us your support by liking and commenting. Yours Sincerely, Swallow Team 🔱 Disclamer: We are not financial advisors. The content that we share on this website are for educational purposes and are our own personal opinions.
12
GOLD: Price may develop an ABC correctionGOLD: Price may develop an ABC correction Following the bigger picture price reacted very well with the "A" wave. The probability is very high that the price is close to the end of the "B" wave correction that appears a bit complex today as it is showing both probabilities. However, we must be very careful as the main trend is still bullish and the reversal will happen with small steps...if it will happen. There is also the probability that the price will rise a bit more by 1797. PS: At the moment, there is no clear pattern of decline. Thank you and Good Luck! GOLD Bigger Picture:
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Solana - Buy here for a 452% PROFIT! (Best level) You are wondering why SOL is falling drastically and maybe where the best level to buy is. In this analysis, I will show you! Technically, this coin is very weak. The downtrend is steep and very impulsive, no doubt about it. But it is also a great opportunity for buyers to speculate on the midterm long position. But first of all, we need to find the best level for it. Fibonacci is a very powerful tool, and we can use the confluence of the FIB retracement and FIB extension to look for a level where there is likely to be a trend reversal point. We need to take a FIB retracement (LOG FIB) from the previous huge uptrend from 2020–2021. We can see that 0.618 FIB is at 8.52 USDT. 0.618 FIB is, of course, the strongest FIB level. Also, we need to take a FIB extension from wave 3 => 4 to predict a fifth wave. There is a pretty good chance that the trend reversal point can occur at the 1:1 FIB extension, which is around 8.74 USDT. Because we have a very strong fibonacci support between 8.52 and 8.74 USDT, we can place a buy order here and wait for the price to reach this level! Sounds pretty easy, doesn't it? I think we should see a lot of buyers here, and we can expect a major rally with a potential profit of 452%! If you bought SOL at a higher price and you want to get out, then it's good news for you! I don't have any SOL at this moment, so I am waiting for the price to come to me! The price is moving in the descending parallel channel, and this is also a great opportunity to buy SOL at the bottom of the channel, so we have another confluence to buy SOL! This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately. I hope you guys will take this trade! Take care. For more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow", right now!
Long
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ETH - HOLD ON to something, DISCOUNTS Incoming !Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 The markets are correcting lower after a brief increase predominantly following BTC up. By looking at higher timeframes, you can zoom out to see the bigger trend at play and cancel out the volatility and noise on the lower timeframes. The RSI and momentum show that the bears are still very much in control, and Ethereum faces a serious risk of a flash-crash or a slow bleed down to $650 - $800 support zone. This is according to technical indicators Phoenix Ascending and Bollinger Bands . We can confirm this from a trend analysis - there simply isn't a large enough demand zone on the next immediate support zone ($1000) since it has already been tested twice, weakening it. Therefore, the price of ETHUSDT would have to drop more to find sufficient demand - more demand than the supply zone. NOTE that this is not for the short term, but for the near term . Incase you missed it ! Here's the Bitcoin update using the same method; Phoenix Ascending with Bollinger Bands: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
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Pine scripts

Smart Money Concepts [LUX]This all-in-one indicator displays real-time market structure (internal & swing BOS / CHoCH), order blocks, premium & discount zones, equal highs & lows, and much more...allowing traders to automatically mark up their charts with widely used price action methodologies. Following the release of our Fair Value Gap script, we received numerous requests from our community to release more features in the same category. "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) is a fairly new yet widely used term amongst price action traders looking to more accurately navigate liquidity & find more optimal points of interest in the market. Trying to determine where institutional market participants have orders placed (buy or sell side liquidity) can be a very reasonable approach to finding more practical entries & exits based on price action. The indicator includes alerts for the presence of swing structures and many other relevant conditions. Features This indicator includes many features relevant to SMC, these are highlighted below: Full internal & swing market structure labeling in real-time Break of Structure (BOS) Change of Character (CHoCH) Order Blocks (bullish & bearish) Equal Highs & Lows Fair Value Gap Detection Previous Highs & Lows Premium & Discount Zones as a range Options to style the indicator to more easily display these concepts Settings Mode: Allows the user to select Historical (default) or Present, which displays only recent data on the chart. Style: Allows the user to select different styling for the entire indicator between Colored (default) and Monochrome. Color Candles: Plots candles based on the internal & swing structures from within the indicator on the chart. Internal Structure: Displays the internal structure labels & dashed lines to represent them. (BOS & CHoCH). Confluence Filter: Filter non-significant internal structure breakouts. Swing Structure: Displays the swing structure labels & solid lines on the chart (larger BOS & CHoCH labels). Swing Points: Displays swing points labels on chart such as HH, HL, LH, LL. Internal Order Blocks: Enables Internal Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Internal Order Blocks appear on the chart. Swing Order Blocks: Enables Swing Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Swing Order Blocks appear on the chart. Equal Highs & Lows: Displays EQH/EQL labels on chart for detecting equal highs & lows. Bars Confirmation: Allows the user to select how many bars are needed to confirm an EQH/EQL symbol on chart. Fair Value Gaps: Displays boxes to highlight imbalance areas on the chart. Auto Threshold: Filter out non-significant fair value gaps. Timeframe: Allows the user to select the timeframe for the Fair Value Gap detection. Extend FVG: Allows the user to choose how many bars to extend the Fair Value Gap boxes on the chart. Highs & Lows MTF: Allows the user to display previous highs & lows from daily, weekly, & monthly timeframes as significant levels. Premium/Discount Zones: Allows the user to display Premium, Discount, and Equilibrium zones on the chart Usage Users can see automatic CHoCH and BOS labels to highlight breakouts of market structure, which allows to determine the market trend. In the chart below we can see the internal structure which displays more frequent labels within larger structures. We can also see equal highs & lows (EQH/EQL) labels plotted alongside the internal structure to frequently give indications of potential reversals. In the chart below we can see the swing market structure labels. These are also labeled as BOS and CHoCH but with a solid line & larger text to show larger market structure breakouts & trend reversals. Users can be mindful of these larger structure labels while trading internal structures as displayed in the previous chart. Order blocks highlight areas where institutional market participants open positions, one can use order blocks to determine confirmation entries or potential targets as we can expect there is a large amount of liquidity at these order blocks. In the chart below we can see 2 potential trade setups with confirmation entries. The path outlined in red would be a potential short entry targeting the blue order block below, and the path outlined in green would be a potential long entry, targeting the red order blocks above. As we can see in the chart below, the bullish confirmation entry played out in this scenario with the green path outlined in hindsight. As price breaks though the order blocks above, the indicator will consider them mitigated causing them to disappear, and as per the logic of these order blocks they will always display 5 (by default) on the chart so we can now see more actionable levels. The Smart Money Concepts indicator has many other features and here we can see how they can also help a user find potential levels for price action trading. In the screenshot below we can see a trade setup using the Previous Monthly High, Strong High, and a Swing Order Block as a stop loss. Accompanied by the Premium from the Discount/Premium zones feature being used as a potential entry. A potential take profit level for this trade setup that a user could easily identify would be the 50% mark labeled with the Fair Value Gap & the Equilibrium all displayed automatically by the indicator. Conclusion This indicator highlights all relevant components of Smart Money Concepts which can be a very useful interpretation of market structure, liquidity, & more simply put, price action. The term was coined & popularized primarily within the forex community & by ICT while making its way to become a part of many traders' analysis. These concepts, with or without this indicator do not guarantee a trader to be trading within the presence of institutional or "bank-level" liquidity, there is no supporting data regarding the validity of these teachings.
Pine Script™ indicator
290
Volume Profile Volume Delta OI Delta [Kioseff Trading]Hello! This script serves to distinguish volume delta for any asset and open interest delta for Binance perpetual futures. The image above provides further explanation of functionality and color correspondence. The image above shows the indicator calculating volume at each tick level and displaying the metric. The label color outline (neon effect) is configurable; the image above is absent the feature. The image above shows Open Interest (OI) Delta calculated - similar to how the script calculates volume delta - for a Binance Perpetual Future pair. This feature only works for Binance Futures pairs; the script will not load when trying to calculate OI Delta on other assets. Additionally, a heatmap is displayable should you configure the indicator to calculate it. The image above shows a heatmap using volume delta calculations. The image above shows a heatmap using OI delta calculations. Of course, these calculations - when absent requisite data - require some assumptions to better replicate calculations with access to requisite data. The indicator assumes a 60/40 split when a tick level is traded at and only one metric - "buy volume" or "sell volume" is recorded. This means there shouldn't be any levels recorded where "buy volume" is greater than 0 and "sell volume" equals 0 and vice versa. While this assumption was performed arbitrarily, it may help better replicate volume delta and OI delta calculations seen on other charting platforms. This option is configurable; you can select to have the script not assume a 60/40 split and instead record volume "as is" at the corresponding tick level. The script also divides volume and open interest if a one-minute bar violates multiple tick levels. The volume or open interest generated on the one-minute bar will be divided by the number of tick levels it exceeds. The results are, subsequently, appended to the violated tick levels. Further, the script can be set to recalculate after a user-defined time threshold is exceeded. You can also define the percentage or tick distance between levels. Also, it'd be great if this indicator can nicely replicate volume delta indicators on other charting platforms. If you've any ideas on how price action can be used to better assume volume at the corresponding price area please let me know! Thank you (:
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Pine Script™ indicator
58
Next Pivot Projection [Trendoscope]Still experimental. Extending further on the divergence backtest results - in this script we try to project next 2 pivots (including one unconfirmed pivot) 🎲 Previous experiments 1. Divergence-Backtester 2. Divergence-Backtester-V2 🎲 Additions Apart from collecting the stats on number of occurrences of HH, HL, LH, LL - this script also keeps track of average ratio for each levels and average bars. Based on these data, we try to calculate the next pivot projections including possible bar and price. Cloud covering the candles indicate historical levels of average HH, HL, LH, LL projections. Hover on projection labels to find more details in tooltips. 🎲 Overall method in a nutshell 🎲 Going bit deeper 🎯 Unconfirmed Pivot and its projection - Last pivot of the zigzag is always unconfirmed. Meaning, it can potentially repaint based on further price movements. But, projection of the unconfirmed pivot will not change as it will be based on previous two pivots - both of which are confirmed. 🎯 Next Pivot Projection - Next pivot is projected based on last two pivots - which include last unconfirmed pivot. Hence, these projections can potentially repaint based on the last pivot repaint. 🎯 Historical projections displayed as cloud - Historical projection values are displayed as cloud around pivots. A cloud above represents area from average lower high range to average higher high range. Cloud color is green if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Red Otherwise. A cloud below represents area from average higher low range to average lower low range. Cloud color is red if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Green otherwise
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Pine Script™ indicator
70
Market sessions and Volume profile - By LeviathanThis script allows you to keep track of Forex market sessions (Tokyo, London and New York), as well as Daily, Weekly and Monthly sessions. All of them are accompanied by Volume Profile options where you can view VP Histogram, Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low. Colors, lines and other design preferences are fully customizable. * Volume Profile of shorter sessions (eg. Tokyo, London, New York) works better when using lower timeframes such as 15min, 5min, etc. ** Use timeframe higher than 15min when viewing Monthly sessions Indicator settings overview: SESSION TYPE - Tokyo session (1:00 - 9:00 UTC/ GMT ) - London session (7:00 - 16:00 UTC/ GMT ) - New York session (13:00 - 22:00 UTC/ GMT ) - Daily session - Weekly session - Monthly session DISPLAY - Show Volume Profile (Show or hide Volume Profile histogram) - Show POC (Show or hide Point Of Control line) - Show VAL (Show or hide Value Area Low line) - Show VAH (Show or hide Value Area High line) - Show Live Zone (Show or hide the ongoing session) VOLUME PROFILE SETTINGS - Resolution (The higher the value, the more refined of a profile, but less profiles are shown on the chart) - Smooth Volume Data (Useful for assets that have very large spikes in volume over large bars, helps create better profiles) APPEARANCE - Up Volume color (Pick a custom color for up/ bullish volume profile nodes) - Down Volume color (Pick a custom color for down/ bearish volume profile nodes) - POC color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Point Of Control line) - VAH color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Value Area High line) - VAL color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Value Area Low line) - Session box thickness (Pick a custom thickness for the session box. Color is provided automatically with optimal contrast) ** Some VP elements are inspired by @LonesomeTheBlue's volume profile script
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Pine Script™ indicator
40
WaveTrend 3D█  OVERVIEW WaveTrend 3D (WT3D) is a novel implementation of the famous WaveTrend (WT) indicator and has been completely redesigned from the ground up to address some of the inherent shortcomings associated with the traditional WT algorithm. █  BACKGROUND The WaveTrend (WT) indicator has become a widely popular tool for traders in recent years. WT was first ported to PineScript in 2014 by the user @LazyBear, and since then, it has ascended to become one of the Top 5 most popular scripts on TradingView. The WT algorithm appears to have origins in a lesser-known proprietary algorithm called Trading Channel Index (TCI), created by AIQ Systems in 1986 as an integral part of their commercial software suite, TradingExpert Pro. The software’s reference manual states that “TCI identifies changes in price direction” and is “an adaptation of Donald R. Lambert’s Commodity Channel Index (CCI)”, which was introduced to the world six years earlier in 1980. Interestingly, a vestige of this early beginning can still be seen in the source code of LazyBear’s script, where the final EMA calculation is stored in an intermediate variable called “tci” in the code. █  IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS WaveTrend 3D is an alternative implementation of WaveTrend that directly addresses some of the known shortcomings of the indicator, including its unbounded extremes, susceptibility to whipsaw, and lack of insight into other timeframes. In the canonical WT approach, an exponential moving average (EMA) for a given lookback window is used to assess the variability between price and two other EMAs relative to a second lookback window. Since the difference between the average price and its associated EMA is essentially unbounded, an arbitrary scaling factor of 0.015 is typically applied as a crude form of rescaling but still fails to capture 20-30% of values between the range of -100 to 100. Additionally, the trigger signal for the final EMA (i.e., TCI) crossover-based oscillator is a four-bar simple moving average (SMA), which further contributes to the net lag accumulated by the consecutive EMA calculations in the previous steps. The core idea behind WT3D is to replace the EMA-based crossover system with modern Digital Signal Processing techniques. By assuming that price action adheres approximately to a Gaussian distribution, it is possible to sidestep the scaling nightmare associated with unbounded price differentials of the original WaveTrend method by focusing instead on the alteration of the underlying Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the input series. Furthermore, using a signal processing filter such as a Butterworth Filter, we can eliminate the need for consecutive exponential moving averages along with the associated lag they bring. Ideally, it is convenient to have the resulting probability distribution oscillate between the values of -1 and 1, with the zero line serving as a median. With this objective in mind, it is possible to borrow a common technique from the field of Machine Learning that uses a sigmoid-like activation function to transform our data set of interest. One such function is the hyperbolic tangent function (tanh), which is often used as an activation function in the hidden layers of neural networks due to its unique property of ensuring the values stay between -1 and 1. By taking the first-order derivative of our input series and normalizing it using the quadratic mean, the tanh function performs a high-quality redistribution of the input signal into the desired range of -1 to 1. Finally, using a dual-pole filter such as the Butterworth Filter popularized by John Ehlers, excessive market noise can be filtered out, leaving behind a crisp moving average with minimal lag. Furthermore, WT3D expands upon the original functionality of WT by providing: First-class support for multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis Kernel-based regression for trend reversal confirmation Various options for signal smoothing and transformation A unique mode for visualizing an input series as a symmetrical, three-dimensional waveform useful for pattern identification and cycle-related analysis █  SETTINGS This is a summary of the settings used in the script listed in roughly the order in which they appear. By default, all default colors are from Google's TensorFlow framework and are considered to be colorblind safe. Source: The input series. Usually, it is the close or average price, but it can be any series. Use Mirror: Whether to display a mirror image of the source series; for visualizing the series as a 3D waveform similar to a soundwave. Use EMA: Whether to use an exponential moving average of the input series. EMA Length: The length of the exponential moving average. Use COG: Whether to use the center of gravity of the input series. COG Length: The length of the center of gravity. Speed to Emphasize: The target speed to emphasize. Width: The width of the emphasized line. Display Kernel Moving Average: Whether to display the kernel moving average of the signal. Like PCA, an unsupervised Machine Learning technique whereby neighboring vectors are projected onto the Principal Component. Display Kernel Signal: Whether to display the kernel estimator for the emphasized line. Like the Kernel MA, it can show underlying shifts in bias within a more significant trend by the colors reflected on the ribbon itself. Show Oscillator Lines: Whether to show the oscillator lines. Offset: The offset of the emphasized oscillator plots. Fast Length: The length scale factor for the fast oscillator. Fast Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the fast oscillator. Normal Length: The length scale factor for the normal oscillator. Normal Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the normal frequency. Slow Length: The length scale factor for the slow oscillator. Slow Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the slow frequency. Divergence Threshold: The number of bars for the divergence to be considered significant. Trigger Wave Percent Size: How big the current wave should be relative to the previous wave. Background Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background area. Foreground Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground area. Background Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background line. Foreground Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground line. Custom Transparency: Transparency of the custom colors. Total Gradient Steps: The maximum amount of steps supported for a gradient calculation is 256. Fast Bullish Color: The color of the fast bullish line. Normal Bullish Color: The color of the normal bullish line. Slow Bullish Color: The color of the slow bullish line. Fast Bearish Color: The color of the fast bearish line. Normal Bearish Color: The color of the normal bearish line. Slow Bearish Color: The color of the slow bearish line. Bullish Divergence Signals: The color of the bullish divergence signals. Bearish Divergence Signals: The color of the bearish divergence signals. █  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS @LazyBear - For authoring the original WaveTrend port on TradingView @PineCoders - For the beautiful color gradient framework used in this indicator @veryfid - For the inspiration of using mirrored signals for cycle analysis and using multiple lookback windows as proxies for other timeframes
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
59
Day Trading Booster by DGTTiming when day trading can be everything In Stock markets typically more volatility (or price activity) occurs at market opening and closings When it comes to Forex (foreign exchange market), the world’s most traded market, unlike other financial markets, there is no centralized marketplace, currencies trade over the counter in whatever market is open at that time, where time becomes of more importance and key to get better trading opportunities. There are four major forex trading sessions, which are Sydney , Tokyo , London and New York sessions Forex market is traded 24 hours a day, 5 days a week across by banks, institutions and individual traders worldwide, but that doesn’t mean it’s always active the entire day. It may be very difficult time trying to make money when the market doesn’t move at all. The busiest times with highest trading volume occurs during the overlap of the London and New York trading sessions, because U.S. dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the two most popular currencies traded. Typically most of the trading activity for a specific currency pair will occur when the trading sessions of the individual currencies overlap. For example, Australian Dollar (AUD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) will experience a higher trading volume when both Sydney and Tokyo sessions are open There is one influence that impacts Forex matkets and should not be forgotten : the release of the significant news and reports. When a major announcement is made regarding economic data, currency can lose or gain value within a matter of seconds Cryptocurrency markets on the other hand remain open 24/7, even during public holidays Until 2021, the Asian impact was so significant in Cryptocurrency markets but recent reasearch reports shows that those patterns have changed and the correlation with the U.S. trading hours is becoming a clear evolving trend. Unlike any other market Crypto doesn’t rest on weekends, there’s a drop-off in participation and yet algorithmic trading bots and market makers (or liquidity providers) can create a high volume of activity. Never trust the weekend’ is a good thing to remind yourself One more factor that needs to be taken into accout is Blockchain transaction fees, which are responsive to network congestion and can change dramatically from one hour to the next In general, Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, which means that the price of a coin can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction The Bottom Line The more traders trading, the higher the trading volume, and the more active the market. The more active the market, the higher the liquidity (availability of counterparties at any given time to exit or enter a trade), hence the tighter the spreads (the difference between ask and bid price) and the less slippage (the difference between the expected fill price and the actual fill price) - in a nutshell, yield to many good trading opportunities and better order execution (a process of filling the requested buy or sell order) The best time to trade is when the market is the most active and therefore has the largest trading volume, trading all day long will not only deplete a trader's reserves quickly, but it can burn out even the most persistent trader. Knowing when the markets are more active will give traders peace of mind, that opportunities are not slipping away when they take their eyes off the markets or need to get a few hours of sleep What does the Day Trading Booster do? Day Trading Booster is designed ;   - to assist in determining market peak times, the times where better trading opportunities may arise   - to assist in determining the probable trading opportunities   - to help traders create their own strategies. An example strategy of when to trade or not is presented below For Forex markets specifically includes   - Opening channel of Asian session, Europien session or both   - Opening price, opening range (5m or 15m) and day (session) range of the major trading center sessions, including Frankfurt   - A tabular view of the major forex markets oppening/closing hours, with a countdown timer   - A graphical presentation of typically traded volume and various forext markets oppening/clossing events (not only the major markets but many other around the world) For All type of markets Day Trading Booster plots   - Day (Session) Open, 5m, 15m or 1h Opening Range   - Day (Session) Referance Levels, based on Average True Range (ATR) or Previous Day (Session) Range (PH - PL)   - Week and Month Open Day Trading Booster also includes some of the day trader's preffered indicaotrs, such as ;   - VWAP - A custom interpretaion of VWAP is presented here with Auto, Interactive and Manual anchoring options.   - Pivot High/Low detection - Another custom interpretation of Pivot Points High Low indicator.   - A Moving Average with option to choose among SMA, EMA, WMA and HMA An example strategy - Channel Bearkout Strategy When day trading a trader usually monitors/analyzes lower timeframe charts and from time to time may loose insight of what really happens on the market from higher time porspective. Do not to forget to look at the larger time frame (than the one chosen to trade with) which gives the bigger picture of market price movements and thus helps to clearly define the trend Disclaimer : Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
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Pine Script™ indicator
65
Equity Bond Currency DashboardDepicts demand-flow between Equities, Bonds and Currencies of 6 countries. Useful in tracking the flow of smart money and checking the dynamics of inter-connected markets. Principle: DXY lies at the heart of the diagram with usd-currency pairs of 5 countries connected to it. When demand for a currency increases it strengthens against Dollar. This is depicted by a line from DXY to the currency indicating demand flow from Dollar to the currency (DXY is only an indicative symbol for Dollar, the currency may not be part of the dollar index). Similarly when Dollar strengthens against the currency, demand flow is depicted by a line from the currency to DXY. Currency blocks are connected to Equity and Bond Yields of the respective countries. Equities and Bonds, when bought, takes the demand from the respective currencies and vice versa. Overall, the demand flows in the direction of arrows. The flow is incomplete without commodities, import/export, interest/inflation rates of countries, however, the diagram most of the times explains why an asset class is performing the way it is. Left side bar of each block is very similar to OHLC candles except for the following - Instead of wicks, top and bottom of the bar represents high and low for the selected time-frame Open and close are normalised for high and low Bar border is red if close < prev.close, green if close >= prev.close Other notes: The diagram requires at least 200 bars in the chart to render. Please select the symbol and time-frame that contain at least 200 bars. The diagram requires a live market to render the flow. To check flows on historical bars, set the option from settings. Desired indices could be selected for countries of choice. Default settings point to futures wherever possible to have the markets live simultaneously across the countries.
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Pine Script™ indicator
10
Minervini QualifierThe Minervini Qualifier indicator calculates the qualifying conditions from Mark Minervini’s book “Trade like a Stock Market Wizard”. The condition matching is been shown as fill color inside an SMA 20day envelope curve. If the envelope color is red, current close price is below the SMA20 and when blue, current close price is above the SMA20. The fill color can be transparent (not matching qualifying conditions), yellow (matching all conditions except close is still below SMA50), green (all conditions match, SMA200 trending for at least one month up) or blue (all conditions match, SMA200 trending up for at least 5 months) As I wanted also to see which of the qualifying conditions match over time, I’ve added add. lines, each representing one conditions. If it matches, line color is blue, or red if not. Use the data windows (right side), so you know what line represents which condition. Can be turned on/off (default:on) In addition, a relative strength is been calculated, to compare the stock to a reference index. It is just one possible way to calculate it, might be different to what Mark Minervini is using. If the shown value (top right) is above 100, stock performs better compared to reference index (can be set in settings), when below 100, stock performs worse compared to reference index. Can be turned on/off (default:on) How to use it: For more details, read Mark’s book and watch his videos. Limitations: It gives only useful information on daily timeframe (No financial advise, for testing purposes only)
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Pine Script™ indicator
16
Time & volume point of control (TPOC & VPOC)What are TPOC & VPOC? TPOC (time point of control) and VPOC (volume point of control) are points in price where highest amount of time/volume was traded. This is considered key information in a market profile, as it shows where market participant interest was highest. Unlike full fledged market profile that shows total time/volume distribution, this script shows the points of control for each candle, plotted with a line (time) and a dot (volume). The script hides your candles/bars by default and forms a line in the middle representing candle range. In case of candles, borders will still be visible. This feature can be turned off in the settings. Volume and time data are fetched from a lower timeframe that is automatically adjusted to fit the timeframe you're using. By default, the following settings are applied: Charts <= 30 min: 1 minute timeframe Charts > 30 min & <= 3 hours : 5 minute timeframe Charts > 3 hours & <= 8 hours : 15 minute timeframe Charts > 8 hours & <= 1D: 1 hour timeframe Charts > 1D & <= 3D : 2 hour timeframe Charts > 3D: 4 hour timeframe Timeframe settings can be changed via input menu. The lower the timeframe, the more precision you get but with the cost of less historical data and slower loading time. Users can also choose which source to use for determining price for points of control, e.g. using close as source, the point of control is set to match the value of lower timeframe candle close. This could be replaced with OHLC4 for example, resulting in a point of control based on OHLC average. To identify more profound points of market participant interest, TPOC & VPOC as percentage of total time/volume thresholds can be set via input menu. When a point of control is equal to or greater than the set percentage threshold, visual elements will be highlighted in a different color, e.g. 50% VPOC threshold will activate a highlight whenever volume traded at VPOC is equal to or greater than 50% of total volume. All colors are customizable. VPOC is defined by fetching lower timeframe candle with the most amount of volume traded and using its close (by default) as a mark for point of control. For TPOC, each candle is divided into 10 lots which are used for calculating amount of closes taking place within the bracket values. The lot with highest amount of closes will be considered a point of control. This mark is displayed in the middle point of a lot: How to utilize TPOC & VPOC Example #1: Trapped market participants One or both points of control at one end of candle range (wick tail) and candle close at the other end serves as an indication of market participants trapped in an awkward position. When price runs away further from these trapped participants, they are eventually forced to cover and drive price even further to the opposite direction: Example #2: Trend initiation A large move that leaves TPOC behind while VPOC is supportive serves as an indication of a trend initiation. Essentially, this is one way to identify an event where price traded sideways most of the time and suddenly moved away with volume: Example #3: POC supported trend A trend is healthy when it's supported by a point of control. Ideally you want to see either time or volume supporting a trend:
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
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TheMas7er scalp (US equity) 5min [promuckaj]This indicator was created according to TheMas7er's trading setup, that he reveal after 18 years of working in the industry. Claims is that this setup should give you good probability to predict the price movement for US equity. This trading setup is only for New York equity trading session from 09:30 until 4pm. The market in which you should use it are the S&P 500 , Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. Perhaps it will work on some other but for those are good according to tests. It should not used on days with high-impact news, like CPI , FOMC, NFP and so on. The model can still work there but the probability on these days is way lower. What is the base of this indicator, it marks what is called "The Defining Range"("DR"). This defining range is from 09:30am until 10:30am New York local time, it takes those 12 candles in the 5min chart. Indicator will mark the high and low of this range, including wicks. This will help you to already know at 10:30am, with possible good probability the high or low of the day. There is also the "Implied Defining Range"("iDR") lines inside the "DR" range, which mark the highest body and the lowest body in the "DR" range. *The rules (it is very simple to follow): Chart must be set in 5min timeframe. At 10:30am you still don't know which one will be the real high or low of the day, but only one will be true. If price is closing on 5min chart above the "DR" it should give you good probability that the low of the "DR" is the low of the day, and vice versa - if price is closing below the "DR" it should give you good probability that the high of the "DR" is the high of the day. "iDR" gives you an early indication about what high or low of the day should be. If price is closing above "iDR" you will have an early indication that the low of the "DR" should be the low of the day, and vice versa. Note that about closing means really closing above or below, not just wicks. Now, after this you can realize the magnitude of possibility. You can use any entry model you prefer to trade, it doesn't matter if you use ICT concepts, smart money concepts, volume profile , eliot waves, braking the structure concept or whatever. There are so many possibilities for trading within this rule. Enjoy!
Pine Script™ indicator
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10 reasons most traders lose moneyHey everyone!👋 Trading & investing is not easy. If it were, everyone would be rich. Here’s a couple time-honored reasons that traders lose money, and some tips to help you get back to basics. Lack of knowledge 📘 Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful. As a result, they make costly mistakes and quickly lose money. Poor risk management 🚨 Risk is an inherent part of trading, and it's important to manage it effectively in order to protect your capital and maximize your chances of success. However, many traders don't have a clear risk management strategy in place, and as a result, they are more vulnerable to outsized losses. Emotional decision-making 😞 It's easy to feel strong emotions while trading. However, making decisions based on emotions rather than rational analysis can be a recipe for disaster. Many traders make poor decisions when they are feeling overwhelmed, greedy, or fearful and this can lead to significant losses. Lack of discipline 🧘‍♂️ Successful trading requires discipline, but many traders struggle to stick to their plan. This can be especially challenging when the market is volatile or when a trader is going through a drawdown. Create a system for yourself that's easy to stay compliant with! Over-trading 📊 Many traders make the mistake of over-trading, which means they take on too many trades and don't allow their trades to play out properly. This leads to increased risk, higher brokerage costs, and a greater likelihood of making losses. Clearly articulating setups you like can help separate good opportunities from the chaff. Lack of a trading plan 📝 A trading plan provides a clear set of rules and guidelines to follow when taking trades. Without a plan, traders may make impulsive decisions, which can be dangerous and often lead to losses. Not keeping up with important data and information ⏰ The market and its common narratives are constantly evolving, and it's important for traders to stay up-to-date with the latest developments in order to make informed decisions. Not cutting losses quickly ✂️ No trader can avoid making losses completely, but the key is to minimize their impact on your account. One of the best ways to do this is to cut your losses quickly when a trade goes against you. However, many traders hold onto losing trades for too long, hoping that they will recover, and this can lead to larger than expected losses. Not maximizing winners 💸 Just as it's important to cut your losses quickly, it's also important to maximize your winners. Many traders fail to do this, either because they don’t have a plan in place, telling them when and how to exit a trade. As a result, they may leave money on the table and miss out on potential profits. Not Adapting 📚 Adapting to changing market conditions is paramount to success in the financial markets. Regimes change, trading edge disappears and reappears, and the systems underpinning everything are constantly in flux. One day a trading strategy is producing consistent profits, the next, it isn't. Traders need to adapt in order to make money over the long term, or they risk getting phased out of the market. Overall, the majority of traders make losses because they fail to prepare for the challenges of the market. By educating themselves, developing a solid trading plan, and planning out decisions beforehand, traders can improve their chances of success and avoid common pitfalls. We hope you enjoyed! Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below! See you all next week. 🙂 – Team TradingView
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History of the American Dollar. Ups and Downs 1825-1906: US begins market operations to maintain the gold standard. 1924-1931: US engages in number of market operations, including buying foreign currencies, to maintain the gold standard. 1934-1961: US Treasury creates the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), conducts frequent operations directly in foreign exchange markets. 1971: Nixon Administration ends USD convertibility to gold, which had become unsustainable due to the large supply of dollars outstanding relative to gold reserves. 1973: US conducts intervention against German mark. 1974: US conducts intervention against Japanese yen. 1976: The USD officially becomes: fiat currency. 1977-1979: Very easy monetary policy weakens the USD. US intervenes often to support USD. 1979: Fed announces change in its open market procedures to combat inflation and, partly, to support a weakening USD. 1980-1981: US intervenes to tame strengthened dollar. 1985: Major economies agree in the Plaza Accord to devalue the USD relative to the JPY and DEM. In the following weeks, US intervenes often, selling dollars for other G5 currencies. 1987: Major economies sign Louvre Accord to halt USD depreciation. In coordinated interventions, US intervenes often to buy USD. 1988 - 1990: US intervenes repeatedly after G7 statement on importance of maintaing exchange rate stability. 1990: USD appreciates on a backdrop of solid economic growth and dormant inflation. 1991-1992: US and European central banks intervene often against the backdrop of a US recession and weakening USD. 1993: US intervenes to buy dollars and sell yen. 1994: Fed unexpectedly starts rate hiking cycle on an improving economy following the recession. US intervenes repeatedly to support the USD. 1998: US intervenes to purchase yen in a coordinated intervention to support Japan's economy following the Asian financial crisis. 2000: Dot-com bubble bursts. leading to recession. 2000: Coordinated G7 FX intervention to support the Euro, initiated by the ECB. 2001: 9/11 attacks increase overall uncertainty. Fed lowers rates to prop up the economy. 2002: Japan intervenes, selling yen for dollars, often supported by the Fed and ECB. 2004-2006: Fed tightens policy to curb inflation. 2008: Global Financial Crisis ushers in an era of exceptionally easy monetary policy in the US, much of the developed world, and some EMs. Flight to safety strengthens the USD. 2010: Euro sovereign debt crisis unfolds. 2011: US. UK and European central banks sell yen in a coordinated intervention following a sharp rise In FX volatility as a result of an earthquake in Japan. 2011: Standard & Poor's downgrades US sovereign debt; flight to safety nevertheless boosts USD in the months that follow. 2014: USD begins to rally on the back of stronger growth relative to other major economies and divergence in DM monetary policy. 2015: Fed begins raising rates. 2015: China surprises global financial markets by devaluing the renminbi for three consecutive days. 2017-2018: USD depreciates on the back of convergence in global growth, President Trump's sentiments for a weaker Dollar, and strength in other major currencies, particularly the euro. 2018-2019: USD rallies on tax reform and Fed's continuing tightening cycle. 2020: COVID-19 spreads globally; recession begins. March 2022: Fed begins raising rates again. July 2022: Dollar reaches parity with the euro for the first time since 2002. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Congressional Research Service, Haver Analytics, various news sources, Goldman Sachs GIR. Regards, R.Linda!
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Price Action Trading Plan - BeginnersPrice Action Trading Plan - Beginners Step 1 :Before you trade, consider your strategy for the day and how much risk you are willing to take. Step 2 : Determine whether the market trend is bullish, bearish, or sideways. Step 3 : Plan for proper entry and exit once trends have been identified. Step 4 : Avoid trading under duress. Be committed to your plans before engaging in the trade. Step 5 : Take pleasure in the Three important parameters that every beginner should be aware of Human Psychology System Development Money Management Happy Trading ! Support Trading Community
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🕵️‍♂️BASICS: WHAT IS A PIP❓ 👉What is a Pip? The unit of measurement to express the change in value between two currencies is called a “pip.” If EUR/USD moves from 1.1050 to 1.1051, that .0001 USD rise in value is ONE PIP. A pip is usually the last decimal place of a price quote. Most pairs go out to 4 decimal places, but there are some exceptions like Japanese yen pairs (they go out to two decimal places). For example, for EUR/USD, it is 0.0001, and for USD/JPY, it is 0.01. 👉What is a Pipette? There are forex brokers that quote currency pairs beyond the standard “4 and 2” decimal places to “5 and 3” decimal places. They are quoting FRACTIONAL PIPS, also called “points” or “pipettes” which equal a 10th of a pip. 👉How to Calculate Pip Value: 👉The value of pip depends on the following three factors: ✔️The quoted currency ✔️The volume of the trade ✔️And the exchange rate Based on these factors the fluctuation of even a single pip can have a significant impact on the value of the open position. The value of 1 pip is calculated by the following formula: The value of 1 pip = (Pip in decimal places * Trade Volume) 👉Example: 1 pip volume in EUR/USD is equal to 0.0001 Then 1 PIP VALUE equals: 100,000 EUR—> 100,000*0.0001= 10 USD 10,000 EUR—> 10,000*0.0001= 1 USD 1,000 EUR—> 1,000*0.0001= 0.1 USD 100 EUR—> 100*0.0001= 0.01 USD ✅Tell us about issues you had with pips value calculation/understanding in the beginning of your trader’s journey in the comments✅ 😊And See you next time😊 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
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USDJPY H1 Head & Shoulder Pattern???Dear Investors I'm currently monitoring price action on the H1 Timeframe for this pair and I have Identified a potential Head and Shoulder pattern A Head and shoulder Pattern is a bearish price action, however it could easily turn into a bullish continuation Pattern because anything can happen The neckline of this structure is a key level which mostly determines the resulting direction of price Therefore, I am currently looking at 2 possible scenarios from here 1. If price fails to break below this neckline structure, then we could see a bullish reversal 2. If price breaks below this neckline structure, then we could see a bearish continuation However, anything can happen, so let's stay patent and Execute based on your confirmation 👍 I'll be posting updates soon.
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🟦 William O'Neil Rule – WALL OF BLUEWhile this has pulled back recently - it reminds me of a lesson from the great trader William O'Neil and his lesson for the "WALL OF BLUE" 🟦 Not many know this rule, so hope you like it! Wall of blue rule states that when you have 4+ weeks of blue volume bars (blue volume bars = volume when the week close up, hence up weeks), then this is a buy signal of itself. In the case of $SMCI we also have above average volume - which is additional strength and confirmation. This is a signal that the stock is under heavy accumulation from institutions and hence why it made +83% advancement. Now it is pulling back and it is extended from any base - so I would not touch it here, but it is a good example to illustrate the rule
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3 Steps to find your Value per Pip with Forex - 4 decimalsDo you know how much money you’ll risk every time you take a Forex trade? To be an astute Forex trader, you’ll not only need to know your trading levels such as your entry, stop loss and take profit price, but you’ll also need to how much money to deposit into your trade to risk a certain portion of your portfolio. We’ll go through a three step checklist, you’ll need to find your ‘value per pip’ which is also known as your ‘rands risked per pip’. The ‘value per pip’ explained The ‘value per pip’ is the amount of money in your portfolio that you’re willing to risk or gain for every one pip that moves in or against your favour. If you choose a ‘value per pip’ of R5 and the market moves 20 pips away from your entry price, this means you’ll incur a R100 loss (R5 risk per pip X 20 pips movement). Similarly, if the market moves in your favour of 20 pips, then you’ll be up with a gain of R100. However, we all have different portfolio values and so the ‘value per pip’ will be different for each of us. That’s why you’ll need a checklist to follow in order to find your ‘value per pip’. 3 Steps to find your ‘Value Per Pip’ Here are the specifics for the trade Portfolio value: R50,000 2% Max risk per Forex trade: R1,000 Trade type: Buy (go long) Currency pair: AUD/USD Entry price: 0.7010 Stop loss price: 0.6970 Next, you’ll need to follow three steps: Step 1: Calculate the portfolio risk per trade Before each trade you take, you’ll need to know exactly how much money you’re prepared to risk. If you’re a risk averse trader, like me, you’ll risk 2% per trade. If you’re an aggressive trader, maybe you’ll risk 5% of your portfolio per trade. For this example, let’s stick to 2% risk. You’ll then multiply your current portfolio amount by the risk percentage you’re willing to lose in the trade. Here’s the calculation. Risk per trade = (Portfolio size X Max percentage risk per trade) = (R50,000 X 2%) = R1,000 R1,000 is all you are prepared to risk per trade, when your portfolio value is R50,000. Step 2: Calculate pips risked in trade The next step is to calculate how many pips you’re prepared to lose between the entry price and your stop loss price. As each pip movement is four decimal places on each currency, you’ll multiply the difference between the entry and your stop loss price by 10,000. Here’s the calculation: Trade risk in pips = (Entry – Stop loss) X 10,000 = (0.7010 – 0.6970) X 10,000 = 40 pips This means, you are prepared for the market to move 40 pips away from your entry before you’ll be taken out of your trade for a loss. Step 3: Find your ‘value per pip’ You now have all of the variables you’ll need, to calculate the ‘value per pip’ with your Forex trade. Here’s the calculation. ‘Value per pip’ = (Portfolio risked per trade ÷ Pips risked in trade) = (R1,000 ÷ 40 pips) = R25 This means, on your trading platform you’ll type in, R25 for where it says ‘Rands risked per pip’, ‘Pip value’ or ‘Volume’, place your entry price at 0.7010 and your stop loss price at 0.6970 in order to risk R1,000 of your portfolio. You have the three step checklist to find your ‘value per pip’ for every Forex currency that has decimals 4 points to the right. Trade well, live free. Follow for more daily Trading Tips and lessons I've gained over the last 20+ years. Timon MATI Trader
Education
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How To Stay Motivated When TradingHello everyone, Trading can be a challenging and often unpredictable pursuit. It’s easy to get discouraged and lose motivation when faced with setbacks and losses. But, with the right mindset and strategies, you can stay motivated and on track to achieve your trading goals. 1/ Set clear and specific goals. It’s important to have a clear idea of what you want to achieve in your trading. Set specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals that will keep you focused and motivated. For me it was, with my previous job I was making X USD per month, I want to make that money (after taxes) off my trading. Which meant, making 2X my income assuming a 50% ish tax rate (20% VAT + 33% tax on capital gains) I don't agree with those recommending to leave your 9 to 5 jobs if you make X USD with both your trading and your job. To keep things equal, you need to make 2X USD off your trading 2/ Create a trading plan. A well-crafted trading plan can help you stay disciplined and on track. Your plan should include your goals, your strategy, your risk management rules, and your expectations for your trading performance. Journaling everything is important, I wrote an article about it here: I also journal how I slept, how I worked out, what I ate, what went well, wrong and why. It helps my brain registering that going to bed at 8:30 pm is optimal for me, working out at 10 am is perfect for me, etc... 3/ Stay focused on the long-term Trading can be a roller coaster ride, with ups and downs. But, it’s important to stay focused on the long-term and not get too caught up in short-term fluctuations. Keep your eye on your goals and your trading plan, and don’t get sidetracked by short-term distractions. Seek out education and support Trading can be a lonely pursuit, and it’s important to surround yourself with like-minded individuals who can provide support and guidance. Join a trading community, attend webinars and seminars, and seek out mentors who can help you stay motivated and on track. Most trading communities are created by gurus who never traded in their life. They don't even take the trades they're sharing to their paid subscribers. If you're joining a trading community, make sure to fact check everything... Which is hard to asses because even a trading report can be photoshopped Celebrate your successes Trading can be a frustrating and stressful pursuit, and it’s important to take time to celebrate your successes. Acknowledge your wins, no matter how small, and reward yourself for your hard work and dedication. This will help keep you motivated and focused on your goals. Whenever I make my weekly USD goal, I celebrate with a restaurant When I reach my monthly USD goals, I treat myself with a 2-3 days holiday somewhere nice Conclusion By setting clear goals, creating a trading plan, staying focused on the long-term, seeking out education and support, and celebrating your successes, you can stay motivated and on track in your trading. Keep pushing forward, and don’t let setbacks and losses discourage you from pursuing your trading dreams. You got it guys!!! PS I wrote a lot more FREE trading educational content you'll maybe enjoy too Dave
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Guide to Recession - What Is It? Recession is a scary word for any country An economic recession occurs when the economy shrinks. During recessions, even businesses close their doors. Even an individual can see these things with his own eyes: 1. People lose their jobs 2. Investment lose their value 3. Business suffers losses Note: The recession is part of an economic cycle. If you haven't read that article, you can check it below: What is the Recession? Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession. The recession is followed by the peak phase. Even if a recession lasts only a few months, the economy will not reach its peak after serval years when it ends. Effect on supply & Demand - The demand for goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices. A recession usually lasts for a short period, but it can be painful. Every recession has a different cause, but they have the main reason for the cause of the recession. What is depression? - A deep recession that persists for a long time eventually leads to depression. During a recession, the inflation rate goes down. How to avoid recession? 1. Monetary Policy - Cut interest rates - Quantitative easing - helicopter money 2: Fiscal policy - Tax Cut - Higher government spending 3: higher inflation target 4: Financial stability Unemployment : We know that companies are healthy in expansion, but there is a saying, "too much of anything can be good for nothing." During peak, The company is unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Companies are taking more risk and debt to reset the growth Not only companies but investors and debtors also invest in risky assets. Why does lay-off occur? After the peak phase, companies are unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Now, the business is no more profitable. CCompaniesstart to reduce their costs to enter into a profitable system. For example - Labour Now, Companies are working with fewer employees. Fewer employees must work more efficiently. Otherwise, they may be lay-off by the company too. You can imagine the workload and pressure. You may argue that they should leave the company! Really? Guys, we just discussed the employment rate declines. How will you get a job when there is no job? Now, you get it! Let's assume the effects of the recession on the common man: Condition 1: He may be laid off. Condition 2: Perhaps he will be forced to work longer hours. The company is unable to maintain a positive outlook. Fewer employees are doing more work due to massive lay-off. His wages decline, and he has no disposable income. As a result, consumption rates are reduced, resulting in lower inflation rates. A slowdown in the economy is caused by lower prices, which decrease profits, resulting in more job cuts. Four Causes of Recession: 1. Economic Shocks 2. Loss of Consumer 3. High-interest rates 4. Sudden stock market crash 1) Economic shocks - When there is an external or economic shock the country faces. For example, COVID-19, 2) Consumer confidence - Negative perception about the economy and the company from consumers who lack confidence in their spending power. Instead of spending, they will choose to save money. As there is no spending, there is no demand for goods and services. The absence of spending results in a lack of demand for goods and services. 3) High-interest rates - High-interest rates will reduce spending. Loans are expensive, so few people take them out. Consumer spending, auto sales, and the housing market will be affected. There can be no good demand if there is no lending. There will be a decline in production. 4) Sudden stock market crash - evade people's trust in the stock market. As a result, they do recall their money and emotion drives them crazy. It can also be considered a psychological factor. As a result, people will not spend money and GDP will decline. Consumer Spending: During the recession, consumers don’t have additional income called disposable income. Consumer spending parts -- Durable goods - Lasts for more than one year -- Non-durable goods - Lasts for less than one year -- Service - Accounting, legal, massage services, etc. Durable goods surfer during the recession. Non-durable goods are recession-proof because their day-to-day fundamentals are not affected by recessions. Let's take an example of two stocks, ABC Food vs ABC car But, will you stop buying food because of the recession? Will you reduce your consumption of toothpaste, bread, and milk? The answer is "NO". Consumers buy the same amount of food in good or bad times, On the other hand, consumers only trade in or trade off their car purchase when they are not only employed but optimistic about the safety of their jobs & confident that they could get a promotion or a high paid job with another employer. And People's disposable income is absorbed during the recession. Consumer spending is the crucial point to displacing recession. Auto sales: As we discussed, few people buy cars during a recession. New car sales count as economic growth. You may have heard about 0% loans. The company facilitates a 0% loan to increase auto sales. Mostly, people repair their cars or buy old cars during the recession. You may see a boost in the used car market and spare parts selling companies’ sales. Home sales/housing markets: I have a question now! Which is your biggest asset? Most of you will say, my home! New home sales are part of economic growth. Also, house price impact how wealthy consumer feel. Higher the home prices, the more they feel rich, and vice versa. When home prices are higher, consumers feel they are wealthy and they are willing to spend. But when house price declines, they reduce spending/consumption. If your biggest asset price declines, you don’t spend and the economy takes a longer time to recover. A higher rate stops increasing the home price because they have to pay more EMI. central bank reduces rates during the recession, and the housing market rate boosts because the loan/EMI is cheap. Interest rates: Generally, interest rates decline during a recession. Central banks cut interest rates that’s why loans become cheap. Benefits of Lower interest rates - - - Boost in the housing market. - - Increase sales of durable goods - - Boost in business investment - - Bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship. An economic downturn tends to bring investors to bonds rather than stocks, which can perform well in a recession. - - During the recession, interest rates are lower and banks higher the criteria for getting loans, so that people can face the abstracts while lending money. Stock Market: I want to clarify that, the stock market is not an economy. The economic cycle is lagging behind the market cycle and sentiment cycle. It gives me a chill as a technical analyst and a sad moment as an economics lover. Sometimes it's ahead, and sometimes it's behind. Recession = bear market . Recession-Proof Industries: * Consumer staples * Guilty pleasures * Utilities * Healthcare * Information technology * Education I will write about this in the future, but for the time being, let's get back to technical analysis .
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Fall of USD as Global Reserve CurrencyIf you give someone a button to print money, they will press it 1,400 years ago the Roman republic inflated its currency until its empire collapsed USD used to be backed by gold, but that ended in 1971 This allowed governments to print endless money Hyperinflation is just a matter of time The US government learned to overspend and print the difference The debt is now $31 trillion and $100 trillion in liabilities The only way out is printing more money But destroying the savings and hard-earned tax money of citizens Global reserve currencies change every 90 years So, Monetary Switch is inevitable Checkout Venezuela's 2013- mid-2020 Inflation data The paper that is used to print a dollar is not actually worth a dollar. The paper does not have value, it simply represents the value. It is not money because it holds no individual value. To take it a step further, dollars are actually the OPPOSITE of value. Dollars are debt. A dollar is a PROMISE to pay back debt. The U.S. is over a trillion dollars in debt. A trillion is “1” followed by 12 zeros. It’s a thousand billion. A trillion seconds is 32,000 years. A stack of $1 bills would be 68,000 miles high. So how do we pay back such monumental debt? Taxes. It’s painful, but it’s obvious. So, the dollar is the PROMISE of the U.S. government to pay back over a trillion dollars of debt by taxing its citizens. And, to kick you while you are down, the debt is still growing. The dollar is actually debt. That is why the smart rich don’t work for dollars, they work for assets like BTC and GOLD Thank You for Reading. Like and Share!
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ETH - HOLD ON to something, DISCOUNTS Incoming !Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 The markets are correcting lower after a brief increase predominantly following BTC up. By looking at higher timeframes, you can zoom out to see the bigger trend at play and cancel out the volatility and noise on the lower timeframes. The RSI and momentum show that the bears are still very much in control, and Ethereum faces a serious risk of a flash-crash or a slow bleed down to $650 - $800 support zone. This is according to technical indicators Phoenix Ascending and Bollinger Bands . We can confirm this from a trend analysis - there simply isn't a large enough demand zone on the next immediate support zone ($1000) since it has already been tested twice, weakening it. Therefore, the price of ETHUSDT would have to drop more to find sufficient demand - more demand than the supply zone. NOTE that this is not for the short term, but for the near term . Incase you missed it ! Here's the Bitcoin update using the same method; Phoenix Ascending with Bollinger Bands: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
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BTC 2.4% drop before bull run 12 8 2022If you love the spot-on analysis done so far, please boost, share, comment, and follow for more. We are currently getting ready to test the $16,744 level. There is a high probability that we will bounce off this level and bull run up about 5%. *** Disclaimer: a second non-public chart layout was used to officially confirm this overbought point. Safe points to take profit: T1: 2.4% Baseline Information: The strategy used for this analysis takes into account the following factors: Timeframe: 3min and 5 min Symbols: BTCUSDT , ETHUSDT , BTCDOWN, and ETHDOWN Exchange: Binance Indicators: For obvious reasons, precise indicators names can not be provided, but this analysis makes use of VWAP , moving averages, and Fib charts. Chart Count: 8 Disclaimer: The information and publications are not meant to be or constitute financial, investment, trading, or other advice or recommendations.
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Ethereum Analysis 08.12.2022Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis:
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