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20 hours ago
BTCUSD, 240 Long
3 1743
Have been preparing my traders
for a breakout. Scaled into a long position
over the past couple of days, and did my final
adds on the news that the first Bitcoin ETF is
approved. This is a nice catalyst to combine
with the technical pattern we've been watching.
11 hours ago
BTCUSD, 120 Long
11 420
I believe the first impulse wave of the zigzag has completed. I'm expecting a correction back to (iv) then another impulse wave up to 320 to complete wave a of 5
8 hours ago
EURJPY, 60 Short
10 381
I am fully aware of the risk that sequels tend not to be as good as the original (Rocky comes to mind), but I could not resist putting this pair on my watch list again. As my last two publications on this one (see links under Related Ideas) left me with a good amount of pips, I thought I would try to cash in again. I therefore present to you the new installment in the EURJPY series: Consolidation Mode Part III. This pair has been ranging around the key structure kevel of 135.14 for almost 27 days. Despite the mixed Euro data that came out this morning, price drove up 70 pips, so after breaking the key structure level to the downside last Thursday, price is now approaching it again from below.

On the technical side, we can see the contour of a bearish Bat on the hourly timeframe that completes at the mentioned structure level. Price comfortably passed the B point this morning and progressed 55% towards the potential reversal zone (PRZ). When defining the PRZ for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2618 BC). This defines a clear and tight zone, about 20 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. The key structure level at 135.14 lies smack in the middle of this zone, increasing the odds on a reversal.

Should the price climb enough to test the PRZ, stabilise and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. Normally, I look for TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD, but in this instance I have placed them both a little higher due to structure support levels.

There are 101 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 3.1!
1 day ago
BTCUSD, 240 Neutral
6 546
DO NOT OVER TRADE. People assume the best traders are the most active ones, and that we sit around all day staring at hundreds of charts. It's simply not true, but people love to over-complicate things. Pick a few reliable indicators, fine tune them to your liking, and follow the signals. Ignore the herd sentiment, the "fundamental" news developments, and all the noise. Trade what you see. Only price pays.
21 hours ago
AUDUSD, W Neutral
1 352
Heavy fall AUDUSD has not started yet.
The next few weeks. AUDUSD will be growth.
The first target 0.72. And the final target in 2015 would be 0.62 level
1 day ago
USDJPY, 60 Neutral
21 702
Depending on how the market will continue the reaction of Friday's news events, we might see the completion of this bullish cypher pattern or not.
Personally I will not enter with a limit order as there is no structure at the pattern completion, there is however some 10 pips lower (orange dotted line). If price reaches this point I will look for confirmation for a reversal as this increases our Risk/Reward ratio.

Let me know if you have any questions
3 hours ago
USDJPY, D Neutral
8 170
Not trivial.

If breaks 120.30, it could reach 122 rather quickly.

if 120.30 retains, a failure of the channel up would probably bring to 117 later this months.
18 hours ago
NZDJPY, 240 Short
5 162
Here is a favorite trade of mine I thought I'd share.

1. We are looking for the 50-SMA to indicate a downtrend (Angle is going down)

2. I am looking for price to break above the 50-SMA and several candles to close above making an ARC.

3. Then I want to find the high of that move which I use a Bearish Candlestick pattern:
Doji, Pin-Bar, Bearish Engulfing, etc.

4. I use the RSI as a momentum/overbought indicator. Looking for it to be oversold and making
lower highs. It doesn't have to show lower highs, may just head down. As long as it's in an area
showing overbought, that's good enough.

Buy @ close of next candlestick, which should close below the previous bearish one.

Stop loss is just above the peak candlestick.

Target #1 is 50-SMA

Target #2 is bottom of Bollinger Band

9 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
0 448
Double bottom potential, at 2000 61.8% retracement.
RSI slight bullish divergence.
Range boxes.
Stochastics turning up.
Falling Wedge like formation.
1 day ago
USDCAD, 60 Neutral
4 494
Less is more ... We have 2 potential bats setting up here on the hourly chart. We'll check if one will complete and which one it will be ... but we are prepared for both directions :)
8 days ago
73 6096
In my last published chart I suggested that it was in final down leg of this bearish cycle.

Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge. However the price sliced through that to 150 zone.

In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern.

Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.

Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.

Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area.

[I have been sharing this provisional revision in the Bitcoin chat for sometime (see snapshot below) but was reluctant to publish it for the sake of it. Some clarity would help top publish meaningful update. Now though it seems].

Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone.

Assuming that the move from Jan 2014 high is part of larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction.

This is probably the best outcome for BTCUSD to form a major low around 100-80. In fact the worry is that that might not be the final low from which another Bullish Cycle could develop to retest all time high. The reason is that on log scale the price has dropped below the long term rising trendline support and it seems at present that to regain that, it will be a difficult task. In which case we have very long side way correction between Nov 2013 high and 100-80 that could last for another year or more before the Final Low could be in place.

I say that because our larger counts from early history has been on assumption which gave us reason to label Nov 2013 high as Wave 3 but in realty it could be wave 5 top. However we will just keep that in the back of our mind for now as we track our adjusted road map to expected low in the region of 100- 80.

I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your moments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled and to obtain a link to join me.

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.

Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

9 hours ago
SPX500, D Short
1 174
Let's have a check list and see what and how is changing in Price action.

- Last three days show undecision, bullish momentum dropped further. Heikin Ashi candles turn red, haDelta slowly decreasing below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish
- As a new signal MACD is about to give a warning signal, we may see a bearish cross attempt soon. However we still can not exclude similar Price action to the one that happened in late November-early December. Back then Price made a minor swing down below Tenkan Sen, but the first dip was bought. The selling accelerated only later, when Kijun Sen got higher too. The case is a bit similar now. Tenkan Sen at 2102 acts as first minor support, but Kijun is still lower. Anyway, there is a bearish divergence developing in this market, and chance of a pull back is increasing.

- Price has been moving sideaway for almost a week now. Kumo has been getting thinner below Price as volatility is decreasing. The support level is clear at 2100, there we have 100 WMA, forward Senkou B line, and Chikou horizontal level too.
- ADX is still decreasing, with mixed DMI signals.
- Heikin Ashi candles are mixed, haDelta swinging just around zero line, while the oscillator has been bearish for a while (negative divergence)

I think a correction is really close now. The only thing that keeps SP500 levitating is the extremely euphoric bullish Price action in European equities, which sends European Indexes all over the roof. A chill down will eventually happen in Europe too, and then SP500 as a relatively weaker index will do its round down.

For short entry watch 2100! Lower daily supports and corrective tgts are: 2075-2080 and 2055-2060.

p.s.: There is again an interesting phenomenon in VIX futures. Market is so confidently bullish, that March VIX is trading -155 points below April VIX futures, while there is still around 3 weeks left until March VIX maturity. It is very rare to see this kind of low volatility Pricing, and this very wide spread between the two front VIX contracts. So this can be a good trade opportunity as well to play correction: buy VIX March vs Selling VIX April. Given the technical picture, the downside on further spread widenning is limited, while in case of a quick correction the spread can tighten back towards -50 or 0.
9 hours ago
XAUUSD, 240 Short
1 236
Gold has formed triple top around $1225 and any trend reversal only above that level. Any break of $1225 could open the way for another test of $1236 (R2 Feb 16th high).

On the downside $1200 (S1) is minor support and any break below will drag the commodity to $1190/$1170.

Indicators (1 hour chart)
CCI (50) – Sell
CCI (14) – Sell
Ichimoku- Sell

Recommendation: Sell Gold around $1216, SL 1230, Targets $1190/$1171.

20 hours ago
BTCUSD, D Neutral
2 281
I'm still bullish long term, and we seem to have broke that consolidation wedge/triangle. More so, we're headed towards breaking that upper trend line of the bear market in due time. However, this overbought TA condition played out with a pullback the last few times. Heads up.
19 hours ago
0 97
I actually made this a while ago when I created Bitcoin Truevalue and haven't adjusted the current curve at all.

Basically, all the trading ranges can fit nicely into these curves and rarely escape out of them. I tried curving out the rest of the bull-run in years past but they didn't really fit the curves. I'm thinking it's a result of matured trading instead of just investing.

So I totally expect another touch of the top of the curve very soon, followed by a nice slow downtrend to continue the bear-run. Then we'll stop out at about $200 and then fly out of the bear resistance due to some good news I guess. Lower would be a nice bet but I wouldn't short after $200 and I guessing a lot of other smart traders wouldn't either. I'm betting the next moon won't be much at about $800 (not illustrated).
1 day ago
GBPAUD, 60 Neutral
8 263
Normally I rarely trade any butterfly patterns, but as this one should complete around previous structure I might give it a try. Stop loss is a bit tricky in this case as we have to go and check for previous structure. The risk reward ratio is not great, all depending on how you enter the trade. If for example a double bottom would form at pattern completion, we can place the stop loss a lot close to our entry, completely changing the Risk/Reward ration to our benefit.
5 hours ago
SPX500, 60 Neutral
4 183
Objectively: bull flag

Candide - you buy.
Vicious - you sell.

ISM will conclude the posture in 24 minutes.
1 day ago
EURUSD, 240 Neutral
0 317
Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw active selling come into the market from just below weekly supply at 1.1678-1.1458. This consequently saw the Euro print a full-bodied bearish candle stretching almost 200 pips from open (1.1388) to close (1.1189). Assuming that the sellers can continue with this tempo, we see very little reason why price cannot retest the weekly Quasimodo support level this week at 1.1109.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the majority of selling was seen on Thursday (news related), which consequently took out a small daily demand area at 1.1260-1.1318. This move is significant in our opinion, owing to the fact that this daily demand held the market higher since the 4th march! With this zone out of the way, the path south is very likely free this week for price to challenge the daily demand area coming in at 1.1045-1.1127 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level).

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who read our last report on the Euro, you may recall us mentioning that if price were to close above the 1.1200 mark, we’d then begin looking for price to retest this level as support and rally up to 4hr supply at 1.1262-1.1240, which as you can see, did happen. Unfortunately though, we were unable to find an entry long here to take advantage of this move, well done to anyone who did!

The Euro ended the week closing below and retesting the 1.1200 level as resistance. Providing that the sellers can hold out below 1.1200 today, our team will ultimately be in ‘short mode’. With lower timeframe confirmation, we’ll happily short down to the mid-level number 1.1150 marked in yellow, which will be our first take-profit target. In the event that price continues lower, our second and final take-profit target will be set just above the weekly Quasimodo support level seen in pink at 1.1109.

Some of you are probably thinking that it may not be wise to consider shorting the market when price is so near to a weekly support. You could very well be right. Nevertheless, what gives us confidence here is that price took out a relatively supportive daily demand area coming in at 1.1260-1.1318 (see above), which, to us, shows that most of the buying pressure is likely consumed and price may sell off.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: currently watching for lower timeframe price confirmation around 1.1200 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).