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EUR/USDEURUSD
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Snaps

Your essential 20 second market digests.
ETHUSD
The final rehearsal

It’s nearly showtime people, please grab your popcorn and head to your seats soon bc ETH 2.0 could be making its debut as soon as September.

RIVN
Steering toward a solid production target

Rivian’s wheels are a lil bit stuck in the supply chain mud, but investors pull the stock out the red after seeing its target-meeting production plans.

SPX
PPI paints a pretty picture

The economic news just keeps on coming and investors keep trying to dissect what it means for rate hikes while oil prices hold up the S&P 500.

NYT
NYT getting noticed

Right, here’s the scoop: the New York Times has attracted attention from an activist investor group that has big plans for its digital strategy.

BTCUSD
Asset managers ignore the rout

Asset managers ain’t fazed by recent market bearishness, still seeing enough demand for BlackRock to up its Bitcoin offering game.

NDX
High on CPI data

Investors analyze CPI data harder than the group chat analyzes your ex’s insta story, and like the group chat, there are a lot of different opinions and nobody actually knows the answer.

MATICUSD
When lines get blurred

Developers of Blur Finance give a refresher course on how to carry out a crypto rug-pull – by making off with $600k worth of tokens.

APEUSD
Bored ape thieves get doxxed

Mon dieu! Phishing scammers in Paris have been exposed for swiping NFTs, joining an anonymous trickster in highlighting the complexities of Tornado Cash while they’re at it.

BMBL
Too many fish in the sea?

Investors were hoping that Bumble would DTR between the market and online dating apps, but turns out consumers are having a tough time committing.

TOTALDEFI
Bridges are getting burnt

The use of cross-chain bridges for crypto laundering is reaching new heights, and in light of the recent Tornado Cash ban – regulation could be brewing.

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Ideas

🔥 ALL Inflation Expectations Beat: Expect Summer Crypto Pump!Recently we've seen a lot of news and headlines surrounding today's CPI. The market expected that we'd go from 9.1% to 8.7% headline inflation. Furthermore, the market expected that the core inflation would rise from 5.9% to 6.1%. As seen on the charts, both expectations have been beaten. Both headline inflation and core inflation beat expectations by 0.2%, which naturally came as a bullish shock to the markets. In my view, this is just what we need to get BTC out of the bear flag pattern in which we've been trading sine June. I'm expecting overall bullishness until at least September. I'm especially looking at the yellow break out area. A close above here means that we will most likely break out of the bull flag and resume our way up. Note that yesterday's post is still valid. We didn't get a bearish close below the blue trend line, so the bulls have the incentive.
Editors' picks
Long
44
The Fork of Thrones - Will the Merge Fracture the ETH Ecosystem?The much anticipated (or dreaded if you're a miner) "merge" coming in Sep 19th will officially move the Ethereum ecosystem from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Justin Sun seems to see the opportunity for this event to sow some chaos within his competition by supporting ETHW and ETHS coins on the Poloniex exchanges as of this week. - ETHW and ETHS is similar to ETC (Ethereum Classic) in the sense that they are hard-forks of the original ETH chain - which means that if you had money in a wallet during the time of the fork, you would have gotten copied coins of it there, too. (Free money!) FYI, if you had your money on an exchange during that time, however, the coins go to them, not you. - ETC has had many issues in the past, including having gotten 51% attacked, which is probably the worst thing that can happen on any given chain. These new projects (with more likely to emerge as a result of miners looking for work after leaving ETH2) will also be vulnerable to similar attacks just because the smaller size makes it easier for hackers to target. - A lot of developers and artists were chased off ETH due to its high-gas fee problems last year, and it's unclear if they're going to be going back, or if the foundation has any strategy of addressing this problem in the near future. (Right now the ecosystem is dominated by talks of speculators talking to other speculators about speculation - which usually is a bad sign for a project's long-term prospects.) ETH has many issues to contend with, even if the merge is successful. (Sharding and scaling issues are planned for 2023, not in September, btw - it's unclear whether or not this upgrade will have an impact on the high fees.) - Crypto's biggest sell during a recession - staking rewards - is not available on Bitcoin, since simply doesn't have the mechanism to do so. The rivalry between the two coins right now revolves around the pros/cons of PoW vs PoS, but keep in mind that on PoW, mining power = voting power; on PoS, money = voting power. Aside from Tezos (XTZ) and a few other niche projects, most coins do not offer on-chain governance so the results of voting will always be unclear and vulnerable to manipulation/misinformation. It's going to be a crazy year for both crypto and the general economy so hope people are prepared. Good luck, folks. 🤞
Editors' picks
Long
18
The NASDAQ and Yield Curve Inversion Battle PlanTL:DR The NDX & Yeild Curve Inversion Pattern suggests that price is bouncing very technically and logically at a long term support trend line. The bubble phase will be complete when price action gets a lot of "white space" between itself and the trendline and the yield curve inverts again in about 2 years. Introduction There is definitely a lot of uncertainty in the market and lots of divergent and conflicting opinions. Lots of conflicting news as to why price could go up, down, or sideways. Ideally TA is suppose to help people see through the noise to make rational decisions in the moment you find yourselves in. A lot of this is pattern recognition and probabilities and sometimes, trite sayings to reenforce deeper lessons. Some of the first trite trading sayings sayings you could have been exposed to: The trend is your friend until the end So long as the music is playing keep dancing bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered Lets keep those in mind going forward analysis There are several stages to a bubble and adept traders and investors will be able to negotiate the market with some understanding of what phase the bubble is in. Generally, there is a fair value stage of the bubble and I have that in the orange channels on the NDX and orange zones in the yield curve portion of the chart. Both orange zones go on for about two years and show lots of uncertainty or even chaos in the financial markets. The late 1988 to mid 1990 saw the end of the Saving and Long Crisis which was a pretty serious event. Looking back the dollar amounts seem relatively small compared to the money that is sloshing around now. The 2005 to 2008 yeild curve inversons kicked off the 2008 financial crisis and it took years for the NDX to return to the swing high of the yield curve inversion. Eventually the uptrend increases its angle of assent and the blue trend line appears. This becomes our long term support and so long as price action stays pretty close to the trend line the bubble can inflate for years. During this time yield curve inversions drive price action back down to the blue trendline. So long as the trendline holds you have a very logical reason to buy. The music is still playing and the trend is your friend until the end. There are many pull back systems you could use to buy the dip technically. Below is the NDX on the weekly with the 200 EMA. Every time it has hit the 200 EMA since 2010 it has been an outstanding buy. It is super easy to set stops down there as well. Whether you like that or not it is a very technical buy and very justified. You can buy dip bearing in mind that "Bulls make money.... pigs get slaughtered" The blow off phase of the bubble occurs when there starts to get a lot of white space between the blue trendline and price action. Once that happens you know that price is going to go below that level because that is how bubbles work. Quite frankly, when I see the white space and the yeild curve inverts again it is basically time to close longs within the next 30=60 days. There may be some more upside but it will be at the end of a bubble, no point in being to greedy and holding to long. Generalizations I see the United States stock market going crazy for the next two years to the upside and then crazy to the downside for another two years. I don't see precious metals having their run until after a lot of the damage from the NDX bubble pop happens. Gold futures bottomed about halfway through the NDX bear market and i think it would be fair to see that happening again. I see crypto going crazy to the upside along with NDX and then having an even crazier downside and that would be the first true bear market for crypto that occurs with a NDX bear market. There is going to be a lot of pain and misery and lots of projects getting the Luna treatment. My linked idea on the XABCD Butterly will show that disaster scenario. My trades I have taken a shining to a couple of cryptos, some new and some old. I still like DASH, DAOUSDT looks good, Kadena looks great. I hope to beat as much money out of these coins while the music is still playing and then hopefully get out before the financial market seizes up again. I think that if things go well for 2 years and my targets get reached before then should be able realize the gains before any catastrophe makes my funds unavailable. Last thing I want is my trades and equity be used to "bail in" the exchanges so they don't have to pay me out.
Editors' picks
Long
32
SPX: Caution, Pullback Ahead! One of the attributes of technical analysis is that it offers consistent tools to define and manage risk. The current SPX daily chart offers good illustration. -The current rally is maturing at a significant resistance level created by prior support and resistance levels (February, March, and June). I think of this as a polarity zone. -This is the polarity law: Previous support becomes resistance and previous resistance becomes support. Note that this zone was unsuccessfully tested in early June. The failure of that prior test is a warning sign. -Oscillators (RSI and PPO) are showing signs of fatigue. -PPO is percentage price oscillator. By presenting moving average levels as a percentage rather than a difference, it makes it easier to compare levels over time. -The low level of the average true range (ATR) suggests complacency. -There was an intraday bearish reversal (August 8th) to provide extra warning. -Two well-defined levels for a pullback would be the 20d exponential moving average and the 50d moving average. If those levels are reached, one would need to analyze market behavers and reevaluate their strategy. By moving to the time frame of higher perspective (in this case the weekly) we see the market is also having to deal with yet another important ceiling. In this case the almighty 30 weeks moving average (Stan Weinstein stages analysis) is acting as an important intermediate timeframe ceiling that also calls for a more cautious view. This is occurring with the weekly RSI moving into the 50 area (suggesting that the oversold has been adequately relieved). Being fractal (using multiple time frames) is important in technical analysis. After using the microscope (daily chart) we use the macroscope (weekly chart) to see if we can obtain extra nuggets of wisdom from the big picture. Net-net, the weight-of-the-evidence suggests that investors should be reducing their risk as the market is currently in a downtrend and has reached important resistance levels. Eric Conrads, CMT, CAIA, CEFA Chartered Market Technician Zenith Capital Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
42
Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue?Primary Chart 1 : AMC Price on the Daily Chart with Significant Fibonacci Levels Noted Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue? Another short squeeze has successfully launched a few lucky traders into the stratosphere. Maybe more than a few if some take profits timely. AMC has risen about +183% above its low on May 12, 2022. In the past several days since July 27, 2022, it has risen about 99.06%. All signs point to another short squeeze similar to the prior ones. Even volume patterns look the same—albeit much smaller than prior volume patterns. The short squeeze could continue as it did in June 2021. Short squeezes don't necessarily stop because everyone things price has gone too high. This article does not take a position on whether AMC is destined to revisit this year's lows or make new all-time lows. And predicting the behavior of numerous market participants—the retail buyers looking for a squeeze and the short sellers looking for a flush—and analyzing how such behavior is affected by other macro issues such as interest rates and liquidity in light of tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy would be a futile endeavor. As a result, one may look to technical analysis to try to make a prediction about the probabilities. Note on Primary Chart 1 how the price patterns at the prior short squeeze on March 29, 2022, and today's short squeeze, look nearly identical. Compare the two yellow ellipses on Primary Chart 1 above. Both peak candlesticks have an extremely tall bullish candle preceding them. And both sport a long upper shadow (or wick). Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. This type of price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Upside breakouts, such as here with AMC, lock in unwary longs with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's books, he further explains that the "false break" that develops is " indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. In summary, the Pinocchio bar with a long upper shadow, especially when viewed along side other similar bars over the past year, imply that price has likely exhausted to the upside for the time being. Further support for exhaustion is evident. Note how the Fibonacci projection levels have provided strong support and resistance repeatedly since the all-time high in June 2021. Primary Chart 1 labels those levels and points out their operation as strong resistance on multiple occasions. The last two rally attempts occurred in December 2021 and March 2022. Both these rally attempts failed at the .50 Fibonacci projection (green line shown on Primary Chart 1). For the current rally, the price bars with the long upper shadow pierces the next Fibonacci level of importance in the sequence: the .618 level which lies just below the .50 level . This also supports at least a temporary pullback or consolidation. Additional evidence supports exhaustion. Note below how AMC's price has now risen to +5 ATR on the daily and its candle has a long upper shadow. Moves to +3 ATR are rarely sustainable for long much less +5ATR. In the chart below, note the location of price relative to the +3 ATR Keltner Channel. The +3 ATR KC is the outermost band on the upper edge of the KC bands. Supplementary Chart 2.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels Supplementary Chart 2.2: AMC's price relative to the +5 ATR band on the daily chart using Keltner Channels Finally, note the declining volume on each successive short squeeze. This suggests that the buying pressure has waned as short squeezes have continued following each major decline. Supplementary Chart 3.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels But the persistence of the buyers squeezing the shorts should be recognized as something that is a new force in markets since what occurred in 2021. Price could indeed push higher if enough collective buying force continues in stock and options markets sufficient to overwhelm all supply. Price can do a lot of things no one expects. But based on technical analysis alone, however, price likely falls lower from here. This author makes no argument that new lows will be reached. It will be important to watch the pullback to answer that question. A reasonable price target would seem to be 16.50 near the .618 retracement of the rally from the May 12, 2022, low to the August 8, 2022 high.
Editors' picks
20
How to improve your trading by looking at interest rates: Part 1Hey everyone! 👋 This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and fundamental analysis! The first question when dealing with interest rates is how to see the information on TradingView. While you can always click the "Bonds" tab under "Markets" and navigate to the "Rates" table, an even easier way to view interest rates across the globe is by using the 'search' terminal and typing in "10Y". Then, click "Economy", and you should be able to see all of the global 10 year interest rates markets: This configuration will get you "10 year" rates, but you can get different maturity bonds by using other tickers. For example, you can see United States 3 month rates by typing "US03M", or Brazilian 20 year rates by typing "BR20Y". All of the rates markets in our system follow this ticker standard. Try one! It's easy. For people who aren't familiar, here's the lowdown on how interest rates work. Interest rates fluctuate in the open market just like stocks or cryptocurrency; they move inversely to government bond prices. In this way, you can simply look at government bond prices to get a sense of how interest rates are doing -> they will be moving in the opposite direction. The reason behind this is that when bonds are issued, they are issued with a "par value" and a "coupon rate". Let's say that the par value for a government bond is $1,000, and the coupon rate is 2%. This means that every year, the bond issuer will pay the bond owner $20. The thing is, after bonds are issued, they can be traded freely in the open market. Let's say that the $1,000 bond increases in value and begins trading at $1,030 because there is significant demand for some reason. Because the $20 paid to the bondholder is fixed, the actual "interest rate" that buyers get when they pay $1,030 for the bond a bit lower than 2% -> 1.94% to be exact. Thus, changes in bond prices change the real time "interest rates" in the market! One thing to note: Government bond rates are different than the Government-set "funds" rate, which is decided on by a country's central bank. Next week in part 2, we'll take a look what drives supply and demand for government bonds / interest rates, and how monetary policy influences all the assets you trade. Plus, how you can use this information to your advantage! See you next week! - Team TradingView ❤️❤️
Editors' picks
Education
50
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their July meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), the Fed confirmed a more data-dependent stance at their July meeting, explaining that the pace of hikes is likely to slow as rates get more restrictive and as more data becomes available. STIR markets have repriced lower to reflect this, and the USD also took a bit of a knock on the back of the policy decision. With the Fed signalling data-dependence, the incoming growth, inflation and jobs data will be a key driver for USD price action where we expect a cyclical reaction to incoming data (good data being good and bad data being bad for the USD). Even though high inflation saw investors shun traditional safe havens like US bonds, the price action in the past few weeks saw US yields push lower as the growth story is starting to matter mor. That means, even though the bias for the US Dollar remains bullish (especially as a safe haven during cyclical slowdowns), the incoming data will be the biggest driver as markets will use it to assess the timing and length of the Fed’s current hiking cycle. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed’s data-dependent messaging pushing rates lower, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Any further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to levels that previously acted as local tops. Stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to shortterm corrections, especially with bad US data points. With a lot still priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about growth than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem a while away. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. However, the data dependence stance from the Fed means we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it should impact the USD negatively, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice, any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, and a dual-growth narrative (one being good for the USD and the other being bad for the USD) we prefer short-term catalysts that offer short-term sentiment-based trades. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. If this continues it should continue to support the currency on any negative data surprises from the US, especially given the size of current JPY short positions. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities . It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
Editors' picks
18
A traders’ week ahead playbook – reassessing the terminal rateWe argued in last week's ‘Traders’ week ahead playbook’ that with an unwavering focus on inflation Fed officials may look to push back on easier financial conditions. So, while the technicals pointed to further upside, from a tactical perceptive, we could see headwinds to risky assets. What transpired was that various Fed members, even well-known doves such as Mary Daly, did indeed push back and held their foot firmly down on the inflation-fighting peddle, reducing the growing belief that we’re close to a major pivot in Fed policy. The Fed may have given us reasons to think twice about buying risk, but ultimately the US500 and NAS100 closed up 0.2% and 1.9% respectively, with the VIX eyeing a test of 20% and US high yield credit spreads coming in 41bp (on the week) to 4.28% - the rally in risk showing huge resilience despite a super strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday and consumer credit ($40.1b) that lifted the odds of a 75bp hike in the September FOMC meeting to a 68% chance – The March 2023 fed funds future (the current peak in the fed funds future curve) rose a massive 21bp on Friday to 3.64%. We also saw US 2-year Treasuries rise 40bp on the week (to 3.22%) to refocus the bond bears target to the 14 June highs of 3.45% - US real yields have pushed up sharply as various parts of the US yield curve head deeper into inversion. This dynamic in rates/bonds is statistically a USD positive and if continues should become a dominant headwind for equity and gold appreciation this coming week – subsequently, with US CPI the marquee event risk, if this comes in at 8.8% YoY (0.2% MoM), then calls for a 75bp hike will be the clear consensus. I suspect the market will also look into the breakdown of price pressures within the inflation basket, but the initial core focus falls on the terminal rate – the highest estimation of where the fed funds could head – and the prospect it can push above 4% and perhaps even higher. This is the backdrop where I see risk rolling over, with volatility rising, defensives outperforming, and better shorting opportunities should kick in. Technically the USD is looking attractive again, certainly, vs the JPY, which is really just a proxy of the US bond market – with USDJPY now testing the 50% fibo of the 138.39 to 130.39 drawdown, a break here and I’d favour moves for ¥137, which is the implied range top priced by options implied volatility (with a 68% level of confidence) – the USD also remains the hedge against equity drawdown, holding the highest inverse correlation with the NAS100, while offering decent levels of carry too. With that in mind, downtrend resistance (drawn from the Jan highs) on the NAS100 was respected on Friday, so the bulls will need a closing break here to take the index to 13,630, and given we’ve seen a steady increase to short the NAS100 from clients, many in the retail trading community are seeing this trend resistance are defining. If US bond yields push higher this week as the market senses the Fed pivot isn’t on, then after a 20% rally we may see equity roll over – as always, keep an open mind and let price guide. Clearly, the equity bulls will need clearer signs of peak inflation to justify the move. We heard from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (voter, centrist) on the weekend, who said in a WSJ article that she “backs more rate hikes until inflation is on a significant decline”. These comments seem important. Fed speakers to give important intel to the NFP and CPI This coming week we get colour from Fed members Mary Daly, Charles Evans, and Neel Kashkari – almost a repeat of the week gone, and therefore it allows us to really see how the NFP and CPI affect their judgement – it will likely take a number below 8.4% to get the odds of a 50bp hike in September as the default setting – this seems unlikely and while growth is a clear issue (as portrayed by the deeply inverted yield curve), for now, the idea of the Fed wanting to see a “significant” decline in inflation, amid ‘some softening in the labour market’, keeps the market guessing about a Fed pivoting at all, let alone September. I wouldn’t want to be short USDs if the CPI print comes in above 9%. The AUS200 gets greater focus this week with price consolidating for the past 6 bars. FY earnings come into greater effect with a few big names like CBA and QBE reporting, although the bulk of market cap get going from the 16 August.
Editors' picks
30
BITCOIN - Elliott Wave Overview ✅It's been a while since we analysed Bitcoin. That was partly due to Bitcoin being stuck in a correction. The higher timeframe remains the same. We're in a massive ABC flat correction that has been in play for almost 2 years now. We are almost at the end of the correction. A flat correction has 3 major waves - ABC (3-3-5). We are in C wave now, which has 5 waves. We're currently in wave 4, which appears to be a complex correction. Not your average ABC. Safest thing to do is just let this correction run its course. When there's noticeable bearish pressure, we can get in on short term sells down to our buy zone aka LOAD UP ZONE! That's where we'll be looking to get in on the massive bullrun. Overview - Watch for wave 4 correction to finish and price to move down towards our buy zone - Wave 5 will be 5 waves. Will mark that up when we're there - Price needs to go below 17,500 in order for it to be wave 5 which is why our buy zone is below that level What are your thoughts? Do let us know below! Goodluck!
Editors' picks
126

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Educational ideas

Position Sizing StrategiesPosition Sizing Traders spend much of their time looking at charts and analyzing using technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. While this indeed is a very good thing to spend time on, not all traders take their time to focus on risk management, and more specific position sizing. I see a lot of new traders or old traders which trade only to have their accounts blown up by taking random positions with no plan whatsoever. Proper position sizing is a key element in risk management and can determine whether you live to trade another day or not. Basically your position size is the number of shares you take on a trade. It can help you from risking too much on trade and blowing up your account. Without knowing how to size your positions properly. You may end up taking trades that are far too large for your account. In such cases, you become highly vulnerable when the market moves even just a few points against you. Your position size or trade size is more important than your entry and exit when trading or investing. You can have the best strategy in the world. But if your trade size is too big or too small, you will either take too much or too little risk. So how do you prevent yourself from risking too much? How do you know the right quantity to buy or to sell when you initiate a position? Let's say you have $10,000 in your account, and there's a stock valued at $100 you like and want to buy. Do you buy 100 shares, 10 shares, or some other number? This is the question you must answer to how to determine your position size. If you decide to spend your entire account balance and buy 100 shares, then you will have a 100% commitment to the stock and this is not indicated also in taking a position that represents a large portion of your total portfolio. There is also the opportunity cost involved, you will have to pass up other trades that you may have liked to enter. Position Sizing is a critical issue that a trader needs to know beforehand and to do on the fly. It's as important as picking the right stock or currency to invest. Position Sizing Strategies ☀️ There are several approaches to position sizing and I will run down some of the more popular ones. 1️⃣ The first one and the most common one is "Fixed percentage per trade". Position Sizing can be based on the size of an overall portfolio. This means a percentage of that overall capital will be predetermined per trade and will not be exceeded. That would be 1% or even 5%. This fixed percentage is an easy way for you to know how much you are buying when you buy to use a simple example of fixed percentage position sizing. Let's take again the $10,000 account size and a $100 stock. If you take a simple one-person position based on your account size that comes down to a single share, you may be thinking you are no better than the person with a $100 account buying one share. The difference is that the $100 account holder has a 100% position size while the $10,000 account holder is putting just one percent at risk. Which position size allows a trader to sleep better at night? Of course, the second position sizing helps control the risk. A 1% hard limit on each trade allows you to tolerate many losses in your search for profits. Protecting your capital is your primary job. Your secondary job is allowing room in your portfolio to find other trading opportunities. The fixed percentage amount is an easier approach to accomplishing this 2️⃣ The second risk management approach involves a "fixed dollar amount per trade". This approach also uses a fixed amount for this time. It's a fixed dollar amount per trade, rather than a percentage of the actual portfolio. This involves choosing a number again and using the same $10,000 portfolio as an example. So you decide you won't spend any more than $200 on any trade. For traders with small account sizes, this can be an attractive approach because it limits how much you can lose. However, it also limits what stocks you can buy. You will have to roll out some securities based solely on their price. Of course, this is not necessarily a bad thing. 3️⃣ The third approach is "volatility-based position sizing" A more complex approach, but one that allows for more flexibility is position sizing based on the volatility of the security you plan to buy. It's more dynamic because it doesn't treat each stock the same. This approach allows you to drill down and exercise finer control over your portfolio. For example, growth stocks will invariably be more volatile, and that volatility will be reflected in your portfolio. To reduce that overall risk on your portfolio. You wouldn't buy less high volatility stocks than you would lower volatility stocks. You can measure volatility with something as simple as a standard deviation over a given period, say 15 or 10 trading days. Then depending on the deviation, you adjust the number of shares you buy when you initiate a position. This allows lower volatility stocks to have more weight in your portfolio than higher volatility ones. Position Sizing based on this ideology lowers the overall volatility within a portfolio. This strategy is frequently used in large portfolios. Even longer-term traders and investors face position sizing questions for them when the price of a security with their holding goes down. It represents more value. Adding to their position, in this case, is referred to as averaging down. Long-term traders can decide to average down using similar position sizing approaches by risking either a fixed dollar amount or a percentage amount when the stock trades down you can use standard deviation here as well to help figure out the dollar amount. Some additional common sense risk parameters seem worth mentioning and may be incorporated into your trade plan. For example, Once you've figured out how much you're comfortable losing a stop loss level for each trade should be determined and placed in the market. A seasoned trader will generally know where to put their stop loss orders after having optimized their trading plan and chart analysis is often performed when setting stop-loss orders rules of thumb should be followed when you use stops to manage risk on your positions. By now I hope you realized that correct position sizing is crucial. You should always consider how much you buy when you buy and also know how you came up with that number. Regardless of your account size. Take the time to come up with a consistent approach that matches your trading style and then stick to it. You can incorporate flexibility as well. For example, if you're willing to take more risks with your portfolio, you can die a lot of the person that you use. sound money management techniques can help make an average trader better and a good trader becomes great. For example, a trader that is only right half of the time, but gets out of losing trades before the loss becomes significant and knows the right winners to a substantial profit would be way ahead of most others with trade with no clear plan of action whatsoever. And you have to find the right balance because if you risk too little and your account won't grow and if you risk too much, your account can be destroyed in a few bad trades. 🌱 If you found value and learn something new, leave me a like to show your support. 👍🏼❤️
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Triangle Patterns 📐 ❗️The triangle is one of the most common and reliable figures of graphical analysis. This is a strong pattern that can bring you a lot of points of profit if you approach its trading correctly. ✅What is a triangle pattern? ⚠️A triangle pattern is a pattern formed on a price chart. It is usually identified when the tops and bottoms of the price move towards each other, like the sides of a triangle. When the upper and lower levels of the triangle interact with the price, traders expect a possible breakdown. Thus, many breakout traders use triangle formations to find entry points. ✅Symmetrical Triangle A universal pattern can act both as a trend continuation figure and as a reversal figure. A symmetrical "Triangle" is formed by two converging support and resistance lines. It turns out such a picture - "bears" are gradually pushing the price down from the resistance line, "bulls" are pushing quotes up from the support line. As a result, one of them turns out to be stronger and the price breaks through the border of the symmetrical "Triangle", simultaneously collecting protective orders (Stop Loss / Stop) and pending orders. The position should be opened in the direction of the breakdown, after the price closes outside the boundaries of the symmetrical "Triangle". If the upper limit of the "Triangle" is broken, we buy, limit losses — we put a Stop Loss for the nearest minimum of the "Triangle", the benchmark for working out is the value of H (in points) — the base of the "Triangle" (the largest wave in the "Triangle"). If the lower limit of the "Triangle" is broken, we sell, limit losses — We put a stop for the nearest maximum of the "Triangle", the benchmark for working out is the value of H (in points) — the base of the "Triangle" (the largest wave in the "Triangle"). ✅Ascending Triangle The pattern is a continuation of the upward trend, but sometimes it is possible to work in the opposite direction. An ascending "Triangle" has been formed between the horizontal resistance level and the ascending support line. In the course of the upward trend, the "bulls" rest against a strong resistance level, which they cannot immediately overcome. From this level there are pullbacks downwards — waves of an ascending "Triangle". But gradually the pullbacks become smaller and at some point the bulls, having bought all the bearish sell orders, break through this level up, collecting Stops and pending buy orders. After breaking through the upper boundary of the ascending "Triangle", purchases are recommended, the Stop is placed below the nearest minimum of the "Triangle", working out is the value of the base of the "Triangle" H (in points), this is the largest wave of the "Triangle". ✅Descending Triangle The pattern is a continuation of the downward trend, but sometimes it is possible to work in the opposite direction. A descending "Triangle" is formed by two lines — a descending resistance line and a horizontal support level. During the downtrend, the "bears" stumble upon a strong support level, which they cannot break through immediately. This is followed by several pullbacks up from this level, during which a descending "Triangle" is formed. In the end, the "bears" sweep away all orders for the purchase of "bulls" and break through the support level down, collecting buyers' stops and pending sales orders. After breaking through the lower boundary of the descending "Triangle", sales are recommended, the Stop is placed above the nearest maximum of the "Triangle", the value of working out H is the size of the base of the "Triangle" — its largest wave. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
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Global Market Reacts Positively Amid Reduced U.S Inflation RateGlobal Market Reacts Positively Amid Reduced U.S Inflation Rate Compared to June, the annual rate of inflation reduced marginally to 8.5%. Bitcoin is trading at $24,003 with a 4% increase in the last 24 hours. After a long period of stagnation, U.S inflation has fallen for the first time since April. Compared to June, the annual rate of inflation reduced marginally to 8.5%, according to the most recent statistics release. The July CPI was projected to be 8.7%. Well, it’s possible that a decline in inflation may be a beneficial thing since it would help dilute the Fed’s aggressive position and lead to lower interest rates. The main indexes, which had ended Tuesday’s session in the negative, responded favorably to this new information. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s futures soared by 400 points, or 1.2%, on Monday morning. S&P 500 futures rose by 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 2.4% in tandem. Market Gains Momentum In reality, the crypto market, which had been in the red for the previous several hours, has now turned green. Recently, though, the link between Bitcoin and the larger market has declined. This suggests that the markets have not always moved in lockstep with one another. The tables may turn in the future, and we may see a collective infusion of liquidity, just as we have seen shock spread from one sector to another thus far. However, this may not happen right away since the crypto market has been ready for a drop for some time. Since Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are gaining ground, Bitcoin is following suit. Bitcoin is trading at $24,003 with a 4% increase in the last 24 hours as per CMC. In addition, exchange inflows have been increasing during the previous several days. Merely 10.8k BTC were sent to exchanges on August 7th, according to statistics from CryptoQuant. The 36.7k BTC figure on Tuesday, on the other hand, reveals a shift in mood.
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Think like a PRO and trade at ANY markets🔥Hi friends! Do you want to know what zones I marked on the chart? Put 🚀 and read to the end. In this educational idea I will explain a few traders secrets that will help you stay profitable in any market for the long term. Take Bitcoin as an example and you'll be surprised how often the same mistake is repeated by beginners and understand how professional traders take advantage of it. 📊 But first, let's find out why the psychology of the crowd drives the market Fortunately for professional traders, human psychology has not changed in centuries. Bubbles in financial markets now appear just as they did before the Great Depression🔻in the early 20th century, when stocks rose by hundreds of percent in a month, and just as they did during the Tulip Fever🌷in the 17th century, when the price of tulips really soared to the moon due to the huge demand for the flower. 🚩 This shows the similarity in the thoughts of people in the 17th, 20th, 21st centuries. It is these faults in human psychology that allow the patterns in trading to work and professional traders to be profitable over the long term. Just don't tell anyone about it!) 📊 Why do people tend to panic during a fall and get greedy during a rise? The fact is that our brain tends to paint wishful thinking in our imagination. When a cryptocurrency is rising, the imagination thinks that the price will rise forever, and you get excited just thinking about the possible earning. And the happiness hormones just keep surging. The opposite is the situation with the fall. When markets fall, our brain tries to protect us from more losses and forces us to sell cryptocurrency. 📊 What help the big players to control the psychology of the crowd? Of course, it's the media. Remember when news of the US recession was at its peak and it seemed like a crisis was imminent. Just at the bottom of the market, when Bitcoin fell to $17k and the SnP500 to $361. I may surprise you, but in 2018, 2020 people had identical thoughts and all thought Bitcoin would fall to $1000. The crypto market can fall lower to 10-12k of course, but just interesting to know did any of my subscribers buy cryptocurrency back then or at 17-19k❓Write in the comments./b] 📊 What are the areas on the chart? I marked 2 areas: 🔥The 1st area (white) is the areawhere the majority of traders, especially newbies, want to buy cryptocurrency. I call this " Bitcoin will rise to 1 million" zone. 🔥The 2nd area (green) is the area where most traders sell the cryptocurrency they bought at a higher price. Most importantly, it is where most traders believe that the fall will continue even lower and do not buy, expecting a fall. I call this "Bitcoin will fall to zero" zone. ✅How can you use the psychology of the crowd to your advantage? I can tell you from my own example that a clear strategy and working with indicators helps me. For example DOM and Footprint, where I can see huge whale orders and open a trade in the same direction as a big player. A large order is a clear signal✅, not a psychological speculation because of the news. A few days ago I showed in one of my ideas how Bitcoin rebounded from a large whale order. Bitcoin then grow by 4-5% in just a few hours. I also use trading systems such as Greenwich or Pump Tracker to identify Bitcoin and altcoins bottoms and ATH. You can see ideas about them on TradingView and their live results✅ It may surprise you! 🏁Summary. This knowledges are usefull for any market: crypto, stocks, ForEx, bonds etc. Human psychology and thinking are the same, but each market has its own specifics. Perhaps I will talk about this in the next educational ideas. Friends, was the idea useful to you? Have you noticed such psychological zones? Do you agree with this idea or do you think Bitcoin will fall below $17k? Write in the comments. 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
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🔍Studying horizontal volumes🤔🔍Volumes are one of the most useful tools on the market, That gives the most objective information about the alignment of forces between buyers and sellers (with qualitative analysis, of course). It is necessary to learn how to correctly interpret volumes ( volume analysis) and the trader gets a powerful tool at his disposal. Add to this risk management and money management (without this, you will never succeed in the market) and get one of the most profitable strategies. There are two types of volume: horizontal and vertical. And in this eduaction idea, we will get a little acquainted with horizontal volumes. 🧐 What is it? Horizontal volumes are a histogram based on the number of trades made at a price level. Unlike vertical volumes, that tells us about the volume traded for the set time period, horizontal volumes show the volume traded at the price level. This tool will allow to identify highly probable reversals, as well as areas of support and resistance . Thanks to TradingView, everyone can use the horizontal volume indicator for free. Thank you so much🙌 📊 Horizontal volume indicator includes: ➡️ Value Zone/Area ➡️ VAH (value area high) ➡️POC (point of control) ➡️ VAL (value area low) All of the above can be seen on the graph (marked on the graph above). The Value Zone/Area is the so-called "body" of the histogram for the selected period and is formed in the place where 70% (by default) of the total volume has passed. 🟡 VAH (value area high) is the top line of the value area. The upper line of the value zone can play the role of resistance and support. 🔴 VAL (value area low) is the bottom line of the value area. Formed where volumes are declining. The lower line of the VAL value zone can also play the role of resistance and support. You need to be very careful when the price approaches VAH and VAL❗️ 🔵 POC (Point of Control) is the most important level. It is a support or resistance zone depending on where the price is above or below the POC. As long as the crowd has not formed an imbalance in the POC area, the price will move either higher or lower than the POC. At this time, it is better not to trade, and let the price decide, entering from a re-test of the formed balance. 📈 How to trade? Remember that everything needs experience! You will need time to develop your strategy based on horizontal volumes or to include this tool in your existing arsenal. Analysis, observation and again analysis! Pay special attention to POC, this level is the most important and interesting in terms of opening a position. Here you should pay attention to the weekly POC and intraday. On the charts above, you can see trades in Gold ( XAUUSD ) and Silver ( XAGUSD ) that were opened exactly from the POC week (previous). You can observe the results yourself. Of course, there are also losing trades, but with the observance of risk management and a systematic risk/reward ratio, success is guaranteed. 🔴 Conclusion Horizontal volumes will help identify (but more confirm) support and resistance levels/areas. Near VAH, VAL and POC, one should be as careful as possible, as this is a good opportunity for a probable entry into a trade. We can call it a "creative process": you will definitely see and form many entry and strategy opportunities based on this. 😉 Thank you for reading and profitable trades ❗️
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Intra-Day Trading TheoryTrading opinions can be made in a very concrete or a structured manner just like how investors study into the financial numbers of the stock they are about to invest into. Short-term traders also have its numbers they study into, it is the price behaviours or the price data of the instrument they are trading. When these data are converted into a pictorial format, it becomes a chart. And I am going to share with you a simple illustration on intra-day trading using trendline and divergence, to derive entries. You will find how this can be done in a very structured manner and you don’t have to guess too much into it. I have included some links below on my previous videos on trendlines and divergence. The first rule: The first about intra-day trading theory is we have to acknowledge the word “intra-day”, meaning all trades are done within the day itself, and we will have to square off all our positions before the market closes. This is Because we do not wish to carry any risks overnight with unexpected gaps. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 0.25 = US$0.50 1.00 = US$2 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
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Bitcoin Vs Ethereum 2.0 ComparisonHey mates! Please be sure to advise which of these products you think will have the most alpha. If shared, please advise the timeframe you are thinking! (1year? 10years?) It is the clash of the titans, and my last article that provided the hard #'s got a great deal of positive traction in the comments, but I did get some DM hate from some Bitcoin maxi's. Please let me know what you think I am missing in my comparison so the whole TradingView community can learn from your wealthy of knowledge. Emotions aside, and Maxi agenda's muted - lets get logical. Bitcoin: #1 Myth B itcoin is protection against inflation -->Worse inflation in decades & the price crashes #2 Myth A supply cap in Bitcoin makes it scarce --> **Bitcoin is itself inflationary for another 100 years** #3 Myth Bitcoin is a store of wealth --> Newly minted Bitcoins are continually sold to cover operating costs while going directly against ESG Goals (Constant Selling Pressure) #4 Myth Bitcoin is safe -->For $13 Billion Dollars a state sponsor can launch a 51% attack against it. -->(A single aircraft carrier cost less than that) -->A Quantum computer can hack any BTC wallet **To fix Bitcoin (POS) it would take years & create yet another fork destroying its value** A fork would have to be made, because the miners make a lot of money (Cost about $7k per token mined) dumping the coins onto the maxis. This is a constant selling pressure that prevents it from ever being a true store of value. The tokenomics are not entirely broken(unless you can not forgive all the coal burned in North Korea & China to mine BTC), but it is not going to be the best performer of all. Ethereum: #1 Benefit: (post-merge) Ethereum is POS -->Staking encourages long-term passive yield (hodling for yield) -->ESG Friendly, 99.5% more efficient than Bitcoin #2 Benefit: Ethereum is deflationary -->Every block will burn ETH, and rewards are slashed by 90% -->Every Dex swap, NFT mint, transaction will lead to ever more scarcity -->For the next 100 Years BTC will inflate supply while ETH deflates supply -->Deflationary prices rise in BP*, Inflationary prices drop in BP #3 Benefit: Ethereum is only improving while Bitcoin development continues to be stale -->Eth has 220 core developers -->Btc has 103 core developers -->Thousands of additional projects are being built on-top of ETH (the next APPL/AMZN) -->Transaction speeds and cost will improve with 'sharding' #4 Benefit: It is MUCH safer than BTC -->Slashing prevents validators from acting malicious -->BTC is susceptible to 51% attacks *buying power SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO ME? I was screaming "back up the truck" when ETH dipped below $1k to long (I put 100% of my 401k into the product at that point, coupled with all my spot holdings being ETH) Many ask if they missed the long? - I say this is only the genesis to generational wealth I recommend joining me in being a validator. Get some passive yield in the most safe deflationary asset in crypto. Eth will fundamentally reward being a long-term investor which will be very attractive to institutions. This, coupled with ESG benefits and the fact ETH has actual utility will make this a product that a decade from now will be in many 401k products, for auto-biweekly deposits. The miners have an agenda , when you hear 'oh its sooo green, volcano's power it' just know that a guy in Sweden handcranking a windmill to mine is hardly the norm. Coal burners powered it for years, and will continue to do so, and there is no amount of code that can fix this waste. Just because 20% is nuclear powered, does not mean that power could have been used elsewhere to drive down energy cost for others. People in Europe and France right now are about to get their largest energy bill in history this winter. Bitcoin POW is essentially broken long term, as they can not fix it to POS as it will hardfork again because the miners make a fortune dumping the newly minted (inflation) coins on new entrants creating a constant selling pressure. Bitcoin is a granddaddy relic. The myspace/AOL of crypto. Please let me know what you think brother! I am not a bitcoin hater, the price may rise, but I think the alpha is in ETH. Bitcoin has been a huge blessing to me, but the people that purchased coins at $60k are not vibing with 'store-of-value' right now. The product is only worth what it is denominated in Fiat USD. Why do people hate fiat? Inflation. What is Bitcoin fundamentally for another 100 years? Supply Inflation "But Zen! Your wrong! Because we know the max supply of coins the new minted coins are all priced in!!" - if this were the case the price would not be wildly volatile. Another Myth from the Peter Schiff of Bitcoin - that salesman Michael Saylor. ..or as he says 'missionary'. It really has 'cult-like' vibes hearing that, be a critical thinker and consider generational wealth in ETH. Interested in Learning More? Click on the chart below for an in-depth comparison:
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Update: Priceline Reached, Waiting for Break & Self AnalysisSo things are going to plan, so far, we saw the rally, the market failed to break yesterday's high. And price has followed the breakout pattern and returned back to the price line. A break through would put this move comfortably back in profit like I mentioned in my last update. These are all positives. But I can't help but thinking about the fact that I could have been 80 pips up on this move instead of 15. I usually wake around 12:30 am to check the charts and get ready for the London open. But this morning I actually didn't wake until 7:00 am, which cost me because had I woke up, I would have managed this trade slightly different, and I thought this would be a good opportunity to critique this position, in hopes that you guys can learn from my mistakes. 1. My first entry wasn't good...both of my orders were designed for different scenarios, you can see in my original post for this trade that I was speculating about two reversal points, but I couldn't be sure which one it would be until it played out. In order to avoid losses, I placed the stoploss for my first entry above my second entry. The downside to this, was that my average fill was still too low to be safe from price going against me. You can see that my second entry came within 10 pips of the highest high we've seen these past couple days SO...if that had been my only entry, I could have run a much tighter stop and made a lot more money. 2. My biggest mistake was not taking profit when price got back down to my first entry. This would have freed me from that first entry and given me an opportunity to get back in at supply with a tighter stop and better RR. If you're wondering how I find these supply zones, I use the fib tool and I look for a spike with the open and close within a 31% ratio (like the one in the top left corner). Keep in mind, a spike can last more than one candle. So a candle that gets engulfed by another can also be considered a valid spike, so long as the open of the first candle and the close of the engulfing candle lie within a 0 - 31% ratio. For a bullish spike, take the fib tool from the lowest point and drag up to the highest point. Do the opposite for bearish spikes. A bullish spike must be followed by a bullish candle to be considered valid, and a bearish spike must be followed by a bearish candle to be considered valid. Spikes should only be used to mark supply and demand zones if they happen in an area of value, or POI. I also use the distance between (highest highs and the next highest close) or (lowest lows and the next lowest close) as supply and demand zones as well. 3. You can see that had I done this I would have been able to get back in, and be over 30 pips up now this second time around, putting me at around 80 pips taken these past two days. I should have done that. If I felt like a rally was coming then it would have been wisest to exit my position at demand and get back in at supply. I hope you guys can apply this to your trades and avoid this mistake in the future!
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Bjorgum Double Tap█   OVERVIEW Double Tap is a pattern recognition script aimed at detecting Double Tops and Double Bottoms. Double Tap can be applied to the broker emulator to observe historical results, run as a trading bot for live trade alerts in real time with entry signals, take profit, and stop orders, or to simply detect patterns. █   CONCEPTS How Is A Pattern Defined? Doubles are technical formations that are both reversal patterns and breakout patterns. These formations typically have a distinctive “M” or a “W” shape with price action breaking beyond the neckline formed by the center of the pattern. They can be recognized when a ​pivot fails to break when tested for a second time and the retracement that follows breaks beyond the key level opposite. This can trap entrants that were playing in the direction of the prior trend. Entries are made on the breakout with a target projected beyond the neckline equal to the height of the pattern. Pattern Recognition Patterns are recognized through the use of ​zig-zag; a method of filtering price action by connecting swing highs and lows in an alternating fashion to establish trend, ​support and resistance, or derive shapes from price action. The script looks for the highest or lowest point in a given number of bars and updates a list with the values as they form. If the levels are exceeded, the values are updated. If the direction changes and a new significant point is made, a new point is added to the list and the process starts again. Meanwhile, we scan the list of values looking for the distinctive shape to form as previously described. █   STRATEGY RESULTS Back Testing Historical back testing is the most common method to test a strategy due in part to the general ease of gathering quick results. The underlying theory is that any strategy that worked well in the past is likely to work well in the future, and conversely, any strategy that performed poorly in the past is likely to perform poorly in the future. It is easy to poke holes in this theory, however, as for one to accept it as gospel, one would have to assume that future results will match what has come to pass. The randomness of markets may see to it otherwise, so it is important to scrutinize results. Some commonly used methods are to compare to other markets or benchmarks, perform statistical analysis on the results over many iterations and on differing datasets, walk-forward testing, out-of-sample analysis, or a variety of other techniques. There are many ways to interpret the results, so it is important to do research and gain knowledge in the field prior to taking meaningful conclusions from them. 👉  In short, it would be naive to place trust in one good backtest and expect positive results to continue. For this reason, results have been omitted from this publication. Repainting Repainting is simply the difference in behaviour of a strategy in real time vs the results calculated on the historical dataset. The strategy, by default, will wait for confirmed signals and is thus designed to not repaint. Waiting for bar close for entires aligns results in the real time data feed to those calculated on historical bars, which contain far less data. By doing this we align the behaviour of the strategy on the 2 data types, which brings significance to the calculated results. To override this behaviour and introduce repainting one can select "Recalculate on every tick" from the properties tab. It is important to note that by doing this alerts may not align with results seen in the strategy tester when the chart is reloaded, and thus to do so is to forgo backtesting and restricts a strategy to forward testing only. 👉  It is possible to use this script as an indicator as opposed to a full strategy by disabling "Use Strategy" in the "Inputs" tab. Basic alerts for detection will be sent when patterns are detected as opposed to complex order syntax. For alerts mid-bar enable "Recalculate on every tick" , and for confirmed signals ensure it is disabled. █   EXIT ORDERS Limit and Stop Orders By default, the strategy will place a stop loss at the invalidation point of the pattern. This point is beyond the pattern high in the case of Double Tops, or beneath the pattern low in the case of Double Bottoms. The target or take profit point is an equal-legs measurement, or 100% of the pattern height in the direction of the pattern bias. Both the stop and the limit level can be adjusted from the user menu as a percentage of the pattern height. Trailing Stops Optional from the menu is the implementation of an ATR based trailing stop. The trailing stop is designed to begin when the target projection is reached. From there, the script looks back a user-defined number of bars for the highest or lowest point +/- the ATR value. For tighter stops the user can look back a lesser number of bars, or decrease the ATR multiple. When using either Alertatron or Trading Connector, each change in the trail value will trigger an alert to update the stop order on the exchange to reflect the new trail price. This reduces latency and slippage that can occur when relying on alerts only as real exchange orders fill faster and remain in place in the event of a disruption in communication between your strategy and the exchange, which ensures a higher level of safety. 👉  It is important to note that in the case the trailing stop is enabled, limit orders are excluded from the exit criteria. Rather, the point in time that the limit value is exceeded is the point that the trail begins. As such, this method will exit by stop loss only. █   ALERTS Five Built-in 3rd Party Destinations The following are five options for delivering alerts from Double Tap to live trade execution via third party ​API solutions or chat bots to share your trades on social media. These destinations can be selected from the input menu and alert syntax will automatically configure in alerts appropriately to manage trades. Custom JSON JSON, or JavaScript Object Notation, is a readable format for structuring data. It is used primarily to transmit data between a server and a web application. In regards to this script, this may be a custom intermediary web application designed to catch alerts and interface with an exchange ​API. The JSON message is a trade map for an application to read equipped with where its been, where its going, targets, stops, quantity; a full diagnostic of the current state and its previous state. A web application could be configured to follow the messages sent in this format and conduct trades in sync with alerts running on the TV server. Below is an example of a rendered JSON alert: { "passphrase": "1234", "time": "2022-05-01T17:50:05Z", "ticker": "ETHUSDTPERP", "plot": { "stop_price": 2600.15, "limit_price": 3100.45 }, "strategy": { "position_size": 0.1, "order_action": "buy", "market_position": "long", "market_position_size": 0, "prev_market_position": "flat", "prev_market_position_size": 0 } } Trading Connector Trading Connector is a third party fully autonomous Chrome extension designed to catch alert webhooks from TradingView and interface with MT4/MT5 to execute live trades from your machine. Alerts to Trading Connector are simple; just select the destination from the input drop down menu, set your ticker in the "TC Ticker" box in the "Alert Strings" section and enter your URL in the alert window when configuring your alert. Alertatron Alertatron is an automated algo platform for cryptocurrency trading that is designed to automate your trading strategies. Although the platform is currently restricted to crypto, it offers a versatile interface with high flexibility syntax for complex market orders and conditions. To direct alerts to Alertatron, select the platform from the 3rd party drop down, configure your ​API key in the ”Alertatron Key” box and add your URL in the alert message box when making alerts. 3 Commas 3 Commas is an easy and quick to use click-and-go third party crypto ​API solution. Alerts are simple without overly complex syntax. Messages are simply pasted into alerts and executed as alerts are triggered. There are 4 boxes at the bottom of the "Inputs" tab where the appropriate messages to be placed. These messages can be copied from 3 Commas after the bots are set up and pasted directly into the settings menu. Remember to select 3 Commas as a destination from the third party drop down and place the appropriate URL in the alert message window. Discord Some may wish to share their trades with their friends in a Discord chat via webhook chat bot. Messages are configured to notify of the pattern type with targets and stop values. A bot can be configured through the integration menu in a Discord chat to which you have appropriate access. Select Discord from the 3rd party drop down menu and place your chat bot URL in the alert message window when configuring alerts. 👉  For further information regarding alert setup, refer to the platform specific instructions given by the chosen third party provider. █   IMPORTANT NOTES Setting Alerts For alert messages to be properly delivered on order fills it is necessary to place the following placeholder in the alert message box when creating an alert. {{strategy.order.alert_message}} This placeholder will auto-populate the alert message with the appropriate syntax that is designated for the 3rd party selected in the user menu. Order Sizing and Commissions The values that are sent in alert messages are populated from live metrics calculated by the strategy. This means that the actual values in the "Properties" tab are used and must be set by the user. The initial capital, order size, commission, etc. are all used in the calculations, so it is important to set these prior to executing live trades. Be sure to set the commission to the values used by the exchange as well. 👉  It is important to understand that the calculations on the account size take place from the beginning of the price history of the strategy. This means that if historical results have inflated or depleted the account size from the beginning of trade history until now, the values sent in alerts will reflect the calculated size based on the inputs in the "Properties" tab. To start fresh, the user must set the date in the "Inputs" tab to the current date as to remove trades from the trade history. Failure to follow this instruction can result in an unexpected order size being sent in the alert. █   FOR PINECODERS  • With the recent introduction of matrices in Pine, the script utilizes a matrix to track ​pivot points with the bars they occurred on, while tracking if that ​pivot has been traded against to prevent duplicate detections after a trade is exited.  • Alert messages are populated with placeholders ; capability that previously was only possible in alertcondition() , but has recently been extended to `strategy.*()` functions for use in the `alert_message` argument. This allows delivery of live trade values to populate in strategy alert messages.  • New arguments have been added to strategy.exit() , which allow differentiated messages to be sent based on whether the exit occurred at the stop or the limit. The new arguments used in this script are `alert_profit` and `alert_loss` to send messages to Discord
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ strategy
34
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast [Loxx]Due to popular demand, I'm pusblishing Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast.. As stated in it's twin indicator, this one is also multi-harmonic (or multi-tone) trigonometric model of a price series xi, i=1..n, is given by: xi = m + Sum( a*Cos(w*i) + b*Sin(w*i), h=1..H ) Where: xi - past price at i-th bar, total n past prices; m - bias; a and b - scaling coefficients of harmonics; w - frequency of a harmonic ; h - harmonic number; H - total number of fitted harmonics. Fitting this model means finding m, a, b, and w that make the modeled values to be close to real values. Finding the harmonic frequencies w is the most difficult part of fitting a trigonometric model. In the case of a Fourier series, these frequencies are set at 2*pi*h/n. But, the Fourier series extrapolation means simply repeating the n past prices into the future. This indicator uses the Quinn-Fernandes algorithm to find the harmonic frequencies. It fits harmonics of the trigonometric series one by one until the specified total number of harmonics H is reached. After fitting a new harmonic , the coded algorithm computes the residue between the updated model and the real values and fits a new harmonic to the residue. see here: A Fast Efficient Technique for the Estimation of Frequency , B. G. Quinn and J. M. Fernandes, Biometrika, Vol. 78, No. 3 (Sep., 1991), pp . 489-497 (9 pages) Published By: Oxford University Press The indicator has the following input parameters: src - input source npast - number of past bars, to which trigonometric series is fitted; Nfut - number of predicted future bars; nharm - total number of harmonics in model; frqtol - tolerance of frequency calculations. The indicator plots two curves: the green/red curve indicates modeled past values and the yellow/fuchsia curve indicates the modeled future values. The purpose of this indicator is to showcase the Fourier Extrapolator method to be used in future indicators.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
25
VisibleChart█   OVERVIEW This library is a Pine programmer’s tool containing functions that return values calculated from the range of visible bars on the chart. This is now possible in Pine Script™ thanks to the recently-released chart.left_visible_bar_time and chart.right_visible_bar_time built-ins, which return the opening time of the leftmost and rightmost bars on the chart. These values update as traders scroll or zoom their charts, which gives way to a class of indicators that can dynamically recalculate and draw visuals on visible bars only, as users scroll or zoom their charts. We hope this library's functions help you make the most of the world of possibilities these new built-ins provide for Pine scripts. For an example of a script using this library, have a look at the Chart ​VWAP indicator. █   CONCEPTS Chart properties The new chart.left_visible_bar_time and chart.right_visible_bar_time variables return the opening time of the leftmost and rightmost bars on the chart. They are only two of many new built-ins in the `chart.*` namespace. See this blog post for more information, or look up them up by typing "chart." in the Pine Script™ Reference Manual . Dynamic recalculation of scripts on visible bars Any script using chart.left_visible_bar_time or chart.right_visible_bar_time acquires a unique property, which triggers its recalculation when traders scroll or zoom their charts in such a way that the range of visible bars on the chart changes. This library's functions use the two recent built-ins to derive various values from the range of visible bars. Designing your scripts for dynamic recalculation For the library's functions to work correctly, they must be called on every bar. For reliable results, assign their results to global variables and then use the variables locally where needed — not the raw function calls. Some functions like `barIsVisible()` or `open()` will return a value starting on the leftmost visible bar. Others such as `high()` or `low()` will also return a value starting on the leftmost visible bar, but their correct value can only be known on the rightmost visible bar, after all visible bars have been analyzed by the script. You can plot values as the script executes on visible bars, but efficient code will, when possible, create resource-intensive labels, lines or tables only once in the global ​scope using var , and then use the setter functions to modify their properties on the last bar only. The example code included in this library uses this method. Keep in mind that when your script uses chart.left_visible_bar_time or chart.right_visible_bar_time , your script will recalculate on all bars each time the user scrolls or zooms their chart. To provide script users with the best experience you should strive to keep calculations to a minimum and use efficient code so that traders are not always waiting for your script to recalculate every time they scroll or zoom their chart. Another aspect to consider is the fact that the rightmost visible bar will not always be the last bar in the dataset. When script users scroll back in time, a large portion of the time series the script calculates on may be situated after the rightmost visible bar. We can never assume the rightmost visible bar is also the last bar of the time series. Use `barIsVisible()` to restrict calculations to visible bars, but also consider that your script can continue to execute past them. █   FUNCTIONS The library contains the following functions: barIsVisible()   Condition to determine if a given bar is within the users visible time range.   Returns: (bool) True if the the calling bar is between the `chart.left_visible_bar_time` and the `chart.right_visible_bar_time`. high()   Determines the value of the highest `high` in visible bars.   Returns: (float) The maximum high value of visible chart bars. highBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the highest `high` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `bar_index` of the `high()`. highBarTime()   Determines the bar time of the highest `high` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `time` of the `high()`. low()   Determines the value of the lowest `low` in visible bars.   Returns: (float) The minimum low value of visible chart bars. lowBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the lowest `low` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `bar_index` of the `low()`. lowBarTime()   Determines the bar time of the lowest `low` in visible bars.   Returns: (int) The `time` of the `low()`. open()   Determines the value of the opening price in the visible chart time range.   Returns: (float) The `open` of the leftmost visible chart bar. close()   Determines the value of the closing price in the visible chart time range.   Returns: (float) The `close` of the rightmost visible chart bar. leftBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the leftmost visible chart bar.   Returns: (int) A `bar_index`. rightBarIndex()   Determines the `bar_index` of the rightmost visible chart bar.   Returns: (int) A `bar_index` bars()   Determines the number of visible chart bars.   Returns: (int) The number of bars. volume()   Determines the sum of volume of all visible chart bars.   Returns: (float) The cumulative sum of volume. ohlcv()   Determines the open, high, low, close, and volume sum of the visible bar time range.   Returns: ( ) A tuple of the OHLCV values for the visible chart bars. Example: open is chart left, high is the highest visible high, etc. chartYPct(​pct)   Determines a price level as a percentage of the visible bar price range, which depends on the chart's top/bottom margins in "Settings/Appearance".   Parameters:      pct : (series float) Percentage of the visible price range (50 is 50%). Negative values are allowed.   Returns: (float) A price level equal to the `pct` of the price range between the high and low of visible chart bars. Example: 50 is halfway between the visible high and low. chartXTimePct(​pct)   Determines a time as a percentage of the visible bar time range.   Parameters:      pct : (series float) Percentage of the visible time range (50 is 50%). Negative values are allowed.   Returns: (float) A time in UNIX format equal to the `pct` of the time range from the `chart.left_visible_bar_time` to the `chart.right_visible_bar_time`. Example: 50 is halfway from the leftmost visible bar to the rightmost. chartXIndexPct(​pct)   Determines a `bar_index` as a percentage of the visible bar time range.   Parameters:      pct : (series float) Percentage of the visible time range (50 is 50%). Negative values are allowed.   Returns: (float) A time in UNIX format equal to the `pct` of the time range from the `chart.left_visible_bar_time` to the `chart.right_visible_bar_time`. Example: 50 is halfway from the leftmost visible bar to the rightmost. whenVisible(​src, whenCond, length)   Creates an array containing the `length` last `src` values where `whenCond` is true for visible chart bars.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) The source of the values to be included.      whenCond : (series bool) The condition determining which values are included. Optional. The default is `true`.      length : (simple int) The number of last values to return. Optional. The default is all values.   Returns: (float ) The array ID of the accumulated `src` values. avg(​src)   Gathers values of the source over visible chart bars and averages them.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) The source of the values to be averaged. Optional. Default is `close`.   Returns: (float) A cumulative average of values for the visible time range. median(​src)   Calculates the median of a source over visible chart bars.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) The source of the values. Optional. Default is `close`.   Returns: (float) The median of the `src` for the visible time range. vVwap(​src)   Calculates a volume-weighted average for visible chart bars.   Parameters:      src : (series int/float) Source used for the ​VWAP calculation. Optional. Default is `hlc3`.   Returns: (float) The ​VWAP for the visible time range.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ library
23
Time█   OVERVIEW This library is a Pine Script™ programmer’s tool containing a variety of time related functions to calculate or measure time, or format time into string variables. █   CONCEPTS `formattedTime()`, `formattedDate()` and `formattedDay()` Pine Script™, like many other programming languages, uses timestamps in UNIX format, expressed as the number of milliseconds elapsed since 00:00:00 UTC, 1 January 1970. These three functions convert a UNIX timestamp to a formatted string for human consumption. These are examples of ways you can call the functions, and the ensuing results: CODE RESULT formattedTime(timenow) >>> "00:40:35" formattedTime(timenow, "short") >>> "12:40 AM" formattedTime(timenow, "full") >>> "12:40:35 AM ​UTC​" formattedTime(1000 * 60 * 60 * 3.5, "HH:mm") >>> "03:30" formattedDate(timenow, "short") >>> "4/30/22" formattedDate(timenow, "medium") >>> ​"Apr​ 30, 2022" formattedDate(timenow, "full") >>> "Saturday, April 30, 2022" formattedDay(timenow, "E") >>> "Sat" formattedDay(timenow, "dd.MM.yy") >>> "30.04.22" formattedDay(timenow, "yyyy.MM.dd G 'at' hh:mm:ss z") >>> "2022.04.30 AD at 12:40:35 UTC" These functions use str.format() and some of the special formatting codes it allows for. Pine Script™ documentation does not yet contain complete specifications on these codes, but in the meantime you can find some information in the The Java™ Tutorials and in Java documentation of its MessageFormat class . Note that str.format() implements only a subset of the MessageFormat features in Java. `secondsSince()` The introduction of varip variables in Pine Script™ has made it possible to track the time for which a condition is true when a script is executing on a realtime bar. One obvious use case that comes to mind is to enable trades to exit only when the exit condition has been true for a period of time, whether that period is shorter that the chart's timeframe, or spans across multiple realtime bars. For more information on this function and varip please see our Using `varip` variables publication. `timeFrom( )` When plotting lines , boxes , and labels one often needs to calculate an offset for past or future end points relative to the time a condition or point occurs in history. Using xloc.bar_index is often the easiest solution, but some situations require the use of xloc.bar_time . We introduce `timeFrom()` to assist in calculating time-based offsets. The function calculates a timestamp using a negative (into the past) or positive (into the future) offset from the current bar's starting or closing time, or from the current time of day. The offset can be expressed in units of chart timeframe, or in seconds, minutes, hours, days, months or years. This function was ported from our Time Offset Calculation Framework . `formattedNoOfPeriods()` and `secondsToTfString()` Our final two offerings aim to confront two remaining issues: How much time is represented in a given timestamp? How can I produce a "simple string" timeframe usable with request.security() from a timeframe expressed in seconds? `formattedNoOfPeriods()` converts a time value in ​ms to a quantity of time units. This is useful for calculating a difference in time between 2 points and converting to a desired number of units of time. If no unit is supplied, the function automatically chooses a unit based on a predetermined time step. `secondsToTfString()` converts an input time in seconds to a target timeframe string in timeframe.period string format. This is useful for implementing stepped timeframes relative to the chart time, or calculating multiples of a given chart timeframe. Results from this function are in simple form, which means they are useable as `timeframe` arguments in functions like request.security() . █   NOTES Although the example code is commented in detail, the size of the library justifies some further explanation as many concepts are demonstrated. Key points are as follows:  • ​Pivot points are used to draw lines from. `timeFrom( )` calculates the length of the lines in the specified unit of time.   By default the script uses 20 units of the charts timeframe. Example: a 1hr chart has arrows 20 hours in length.  • At the point of the arrows `formattedNoOfPeriods()` calculates the line length in the specified unit of time from the input menu.   If “Use Input Time” is disabled, a unit of time is automatically assigned.  • At each ​pivot point a label with a formatted date or time is placed with one of the three formatting helper functions to display the time or date the ​pivot occurred.  • A label on the last bar showcases `secondsSince()` . The label goes through three stages of detection for a timed alert.   If the difference between the high and the open in ticks exceeds the input value, a timer starts and will turn the label red once the input time is exceeded to simulate a time-delayed alert.  • In the bottom right of the screen `secondsToTfString()` posts the chart timeframe in a table. This can be multiplied from the input menu. █   FUNCTIONS formattedTime(timeInMs, format)   Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to a formatted time string.   Parameters:      timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.      format : (series string) Format for the time. Optional. The default value is "HH:mm:ss".   Returns: (string) A string containing the formatted time. formattedDate(timeInMs, format)   Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to a formatted date string.   Parameters:      timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.      format : (series string) Format for the date. Optional. The default value is "yyyy-MM-dd".   Returns: (string) A string containing the formatted date. formattedDay(timeInMs, format)   Converts a UNIX timestamp (in milliseconds) to the name of the day of the week.   Parameters:      timeInMs : (series float) Timestamp to be formatted.      format : (series string) Format for the day of the week. Optional. The default value is "EEEE" (complete day name).   Returns: (string) A string containing the day of the week. secondsSince(cond, resetCond)   The duration in milliseconds that a condition has been true.   Parameters:      cond : (series bool) Condition to time.      resetCond : (series bool) When `true`, the duration resets.   Returns: The duration in seconds for which `cond` is continuously true. timeFrom(from, qty, units)   Calculates a +/- time offset in variable units from the current bar's time or from the current time.   Parameters:      from : (series string) Starting time from where the offset is calculated: "bar" to start from the bar's starting time, "close" to start from the bar's closing time, "now" to start from the current time.      qty : (series int) The +/- qty of units of offset required. A "series float" can be used but it will be cast to a "series int".      units : (series string) String containing one of the seven allowed time units: "chart" (chart's timeframe), "seconds", "minutes", "hours", "days", "months", "years".   Returns: (int) The resultant time offset `from` the `qty` of time in the specified `units`. formattedNoOfPeriods(​ms, unit)   Converts a time value in ​ms to a quantity of time units.   Parameters:      ms : (series int) Value of time to be formatted.      unit : (series string) The target unit of time measurement. Options are "seconds", "minutes", "hours", "days", "weeks", "months". If not used one will be automatically assigned.   Returns: (string) A formatted string from the number of `ms` in the specified `unit` of time measurement secondsToTfString(tfInSeconds, mult)   Convert an input time in seconds to target string TF in `timeframe.period` string format.   Parameters:      tfInSeconds : (simple int) a timeframe in seconds to convert to a string.      mult : (simple float) Multiple of `tfInSeconds` to be calculated. Optional. 1 (no multiplier) is default.   Returns: (string) The `tfInSeconds` in `timeframe.period` format usable with `request.security()`.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ library
25
Relative Bandwidth FilterThis is a very simple script which can be used as measure to define your trading zones based on volatility. Concept This script tries to identify the area of low and high volatility based on comparison between Bandwidth of higher length and ATR of lower length. Relative Bandwidth = Bandwidth / ATR Bandwidth can be based on either Bollinger Band, Keltner Channel or Donchian Channel. Length of the bandwidth need to be ideally higher. ATR is calculated using built in ATR method and ATR length need to be ideally lower than that used for calculating Bandwidth. Once we got Relative Bandwidth, the next step is to apply Bollinger Band on this to measure how relatively high/low this value is. Overall - If relative bandwidth is higher, then volatility is comparatively low. If relative bandwidth is lower, then volatility is comparatively high. Usage This can be used with your own strategy to filter out your non-trading zones based on volatility. Script plots a variable called "Signal" - which is not shown on chart pane. But, it is available in the data window. This can be used in another script as external input and apply logic. Signal values can be 1 : Allow only Long -1 : Allow only short 0 : Do not allow any trades 2 : Allow both Long and Short
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
18
Breakout Probability (Expo)█ Overview Breakout Probability is a valuable indicator that calculates the probability of a new high or low and displays it as a level with its percentage. The probability of a new high and low is backtested, and the results are shown in a table— a simple way to understand the next candle's likelihood of a new high or low. In addition, the indicator displays an additional four levels above and under the candle with the probability of hitting these levels. The indicator helps traders to understand the likelihood of the next candle's direction, which can be used to set your trading bias. █ Calculations The algorithm calculates all the green and red candles separately depending on whether the previous candle was red or green and assigns scores if one or more lines were reached. The algorithm then calculates how many candles reached those levels in history and displays it as a percentage value on each line. █ Example In this example, the previous candlestick was green; we can see that a new high has been hit 72.82% of the time and the low only 28.29%. In this case, a new high was made. █ Settings Percentage Step The space between the levels can be adjusted with a percentage step. 1% means that each level is located 1% above/under the previous one. Disable 0.00% values If a level got a 0% likelihood of being hit, the level is not displayed as default. Enable the option if you want to see all levels regardless of their values. Number of Lines Set the number of levels you want to display. Show Statistic Panel Enable this option if you want to display the backtest statistics for that a new high or low is made. (Only if the first levels have been reached or not) █ Any Alert function call An alert is sent on candle open, and you can select what should be included in the alert. You can enable the following options: Ticker ID Bias Probability percentage The first level high and low price █ How to use This indicator is a perfect tool for anyone that wants to understand the probability of a breakout and the likelihood that set levels are hit. The indicator can be used for setting a stop loss based on where the price is most likely not to reach. The indicator can help traders to set their bias based on probability. For example, look at the daily or a higher timeframe to get your trading bias, then go to a lower timeframe and look for setups in that direction. ----------------- Disclaimer The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
58
Point of Control V2 The genesis of this project was to create a POC library that would be available to deliver volume profile information via pine to other scripts of indicators and strategies. This is a republish of an invite only script to open access This is the indicator version of the library function. A few points of significance: - Allows the choice of reset of the study period, day/week or bars. This is simple enough to expand to other conditions - Bar count resets starting from the beginning of the data set (bar index =0) vs bars back from the end of the data set - A 'period' in this context is the time between resets - the start of the POC (eg. start of Day or Week) until it resets (for example at the beginning of a next day or week) - Automates the determination of the increment level rather than the user specifying ticks or price brackets - Does not allow for setting the # of rows and then calculating the implied price increment levels - When a period is complete it is often useful to look back at the POCs of historical periods, or extend them forward. - This script will find the historical POCs around the current price and display them rather than extend all the historical POC lines to the right - This script also looks across all the period POCs and identifies the master POC or what I call the Grand POC, and also the next 3 runner up POCs This indicator is also available as a library. BINANCE:BTCUSDT NSE:NIFTY OANDA:XAUUSD NASDAQ:AAPL TVC:USOIL
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
8
Andean OscillatorThe following script is an original creation originally posted on the blog section of the broker Alpaca. The proposed indicator aims to measure the degree of variations of individual up-trends and down-trends in the price, thus allowing to highlight the direction and amplitude of a current trend. Settings Length : Determines the significance of the trends degree of variations measured by the indicator. Signal Length : Moving average period of the signal line. Usage The Andean Oscillator can return multiple information to the user, with its core interpretation revolving around the bull and bear components. A rising bull component (in green) indicates the presence of bullish price variations while a rising bear component (in red) indicates the presence of bearish price variations. When the bull component is over the bear component market is up-trending, and the user can expect new higher highs. When the bear component is over the bull component market is down-trending, and the user can expect new lower lows. The signal line (in orange) allows a more developed interpretation of the indicator and can be used in several ways. It is possible to use it to filter out potential false signals given by the crosses between the bullish and bearish components. As such the user might want to enter a position once the bullish or bearish component crosses over the signal line instead. Details Measuring the degree of variations of trends in the price by their direction (up-trend/down-trend) can be done in several way. The approach taken by the proposed indicator makes use of exponential envelopes and the naive computation of standard deviation. First, exponential envelopes are obtained from both the regular prices and squared prices, thus giving two upper extremities, and two lower extremities. The bullish component is obtained by first subtracting the upper extremity of the squared prices with the squared upper extremity of regular prices, the square root is then applied to this result. The bearish component is obtained in the same way, but makes use of the lower extremities of the exponential envelopes.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
27
Auto Trendline Indicator (based on fractals)A tool that automatically draws out trend lines by connecting the most recent fractals. Description: The process of manual drawing out trend lines is highly subjective. Many times, we don’t trade what we see, but what we “want to see”. As a result, we draw lines pointing to the direction that we wishfully want price to move towards. While there are no right/wrong ways to draw trend lines, there are, however, systematic/unsystematic ways to draw trend lines. This tool will systematically draw out trend lines based on fractals. Additional feature: This tool will also plot out symbols (default symbol “X”) to signify points of crossings. This can be useful for traders considering to use trend lines as part of their trading strategies. Here is an interesting observation on the price actions of NASDAQ futures on a 5 second chart during regular trading hours on July 14, 2022. It’s a phenomenon. People like to see straight lines connecting HL/LH, etc., so it's possible for the market as a whole to psychologically react to these lines. However, it is important to note that is is impossible to predict the direction of price. In the case above, price could have tanked below auto-drawn trend line. Fractal based trend lines should only be taken as references and regarded as price levels. No studies have ever proven that the slope of trend lines can indicate price's future direction. More about fractals: To understand more about fractals: www.investopedia.com www.tradingview.com Contrary to what it sounds like, fractal in "technical analysis" does not refer to the recursive self-repeating patterns that appear in nature, such as the mesmerizing patterns found in snowflakes. The Fractal Markets Hypothesis claims that market prices exhibit fractal properties over time. Assuming this assertion to be true, then fractals can be used a tool to represent the chaotic movements of price is a simplified manner. The purpose of this exercise is to take a tool that is readily available (ie. in this case, TradingView’s built-in fractals tool), and to create a newer tool based on it. Parameters: Fractal period (denoted as ‘n’ in code): It is the number of bars bounding a high/low point that must be lower/higher than it, respectively, in order for fractal to be considered valid. Period ‘n’ can be adjusted in this tool. Traditionally, chartists pick the value of 5. The longer it is, the less noise seen on the chart, and the pivot point may also be exhibited in higher timeframes. The drawback is that it will increase the period of lag, and it will take more bars to confirm the printed fractal. Others: Intuitive parameters such as whether to draw historical trend lines, what color to use, which way to extend the lines, and whether or not to show points of crossings.
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Pine Script™ indicator
25

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