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Launch Chart
19 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Neutral
38 1311
Last week EURUSD surprised me by going higher than expected causing me (and many other people) to get caught in losing short trades. The reason (for me) is that I was biased about where the price should be heading due to the QE measures and the strong dollar. I was sure price was to head down ...

Looking back at the week, I notice now that this price action was very logic for the following reasons :

1. We completed a bullish bat patter so we can expect a retracement to the upside.
2. The classical retracement levels for a bat pattern are the 0.382 and the 0.618 fibonacci levels, which we had not reached yet.
3. There was also the 2618 trade (double top, break of neck line and 0.618 retracement) where we did not reach that same 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

All of the above pointed in the direction that there was more to the upside on this pair, but as I was biased on looking for short opportunities I failed to see them. Luckily there is such a thing as the weekend where we reflect on the trades from the last week and now it seems all very clear to me.

Lesson learned : Trade what you see, not what you want to see !

Where are we now ?

1. The 0.618 retracement of the double top has been reached, the 2618 pattern is ready to be traded.
2. We are at a level that has served as resistance several times in the recent past.
3. We reached the 0.618 retracement of the bullish bat pattern as well, but did not reach the 0.786 (which could be an indicator for a potential butterfly pattern taking price higher)

What will it bring us ?

Personally I will not jump into the trade first thing Monday morning. I will watch price action closely to check if this level holds. Then there are 2 possibilities :

4. Price action breaks and closes above 1.09 => we can expect the big resistance zone to be tested again.
or
5. Price action tests the level again and fails to break it => we can now short and look for the 0.382 and 0.618 retracement. Even a test of the lower support level is possible (100% retracement)

Have you been caught in a short bias as well, has this pair tricked you too ? Or did you manage to catch the whole move up ? Your comments are always welcome below !
6 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Short
6 501
EURUSD remains in larger bearish cycle that whilst very mature still has some downside potential, which could be seen in my last chart published about a month ago with possible 1.04 - 1.03 downside target (see link below).

Since forming March 2013 low, it has been in larger congestion zone. Many are anticipating possible larger triangle formation which is entirely possible.

However, I am working on the premise that we have abc zigzag retracement which could have ended with 6th April high. If correct then we have wave 1 impulsive decline and subsequent retracement of 78.6% nearly complete for wave 2 or could do so very soon.

It has been observed that many weekly highs and low are formed on Monday or Friday. I am assuming that it could gap up on open today or just move up in to our shorting zone and then sell off in process forming weekly high and potential swing for reversal.

So here is the summary:

1. Retraced 78.6% of previous swing and also others fibs ratio confluence.
2. ABC retracement zigzag is almost complete with wave "C" potentially forming a rising wedge (ending diagonal - see 1Hr chart for details below) which could have bit more upside room.
3. RSI is coiling at higher level into declining resistance line.
4. Ideal entry around 1.09 -1.0920 or better.
5. However, if we get price much higher towards 1.1 then we will be close to invalidation point and might need a review of analysis.

If the setup work then potential downside targets:
1. Target 1 = 1.055
2. Target 2 = 1.044

Could this decline line up with disappointment or lack of progress on Greece issue? We will see in the meantime look forward to seeing this trade work for us.

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
1 day ago
EURJPY, 240 Neutral
4 862
A confulence of potential resistance levels that suggest watching this are for a short trade. Despite all the confluence, i always prefer to wait for confirmation through candlesticks or RSI momentum divergence.

Potential for a new lower high
Two descending resistance levels , one for a broken triangle pattern and one for the overall bearish wave.
50-days SMA
Fibonacci retracement levels


Good luck...
Exclusively Subscribers to my mailing list will get one month access to my trading account . subscribe here http://thefxchannel.com/ ,
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My best regards
Technician
12 hours ago
EURUSD, D Neutral
3 416
I believe in a short timeframe.
The value of the Euro. Increases.
And I also believe that now is the perfect opportunity for investment in gold and the euro.
Soon. Most stocks and indexes. To be exposed a heavy fall.
Good luck.
4 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Short
2 246
I think the EURUSD will be consolidating for the next days at least to Wednesday due to bank holidays and before the FOMC statement.
A potential triangle is forming at D1 chart.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EHMHWkr8/

I prefer to use harmonic in confluence with other reasons to validate an entry. Here on 4H chart we can see a bearish gartley pattern almost completed.
Other confluece reasons:

- trendline resistance
- R1 pivot resistance
- D1 EMA 55 level acting as resistance
- strong psycholevel 1.1000 (to protect the SL)
- double bollinger band correction (no shown on the chart)

Best regards

1 day ago
GBPUSD, 240 Neutral
6 399
Technically speaking, the cable gave a false bearish signal, and it often happens that when there is a false breakout, the market's going to break the resistance on the other side, this happened.
In the last 10-15 years, during the election period in the UK, the pound has always lived a bear market, but so far, the cable Sebra be set for a further bullish extension.
If we look at the W and M time frame, we see that both signals are bearish, while on the daily chart and H4 trend has become strongly bullish.
I expect some pullback, but this should be interpreted as a buy opportunity.
----------------------------------------------------------------
This is the analysis that we published about a month ago: If you look at the graph on the bottom right, you'll notice that this rebound was already planned.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/uodXcuh9-GBPUSD-Trading-Strategy-Part-1/

This graph shows the analysis of the false breakout:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/4nddBU3S-GBPUSD-false-break-of-the-lows-or-bearish-continuation/

And finally, this was our last analysis published:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/ELaIaOCJ-GBPUSD-Resistence/

--------------------------------------------------------------

I do appreciate all views be it a like or comment .... for me it's more important! Thanks!

Signal Suisse
6 hours ago
NZDUSD, 240 Long
5 186
No lengthy explanation this time as the chart pretty much speaks for itself. Price is currently sitting right under a resistance level and has been rejected a couple of times. Chances are high that the bat pattern will complete around 0.7510-20. That's where I will look for a long position.

Target 1 is a retracement into the current price level and is very likely to be reached, Target 2 is a bit more tricky as it would mean that we'd have to break through that resistance level and retrace to the B-point of the bat pattern.
8 hours ago
GBPCAD, D Long
10 114
Nice opportunities for a possible long next week.

I'm going to wait until the resistance zone is broken. Because for some reason I don't trust it.

Tom
4 hours ago
EURNZD, 240 Short
2 111
One of my favourite patterns is the cypher pattern. But what to do when the price seems to have reversed just before completion ? In this particular case, 15 pips are keeping us from the completion of this otherwise beautiful cypher pattern and it retrace just below a level that previously has served as support and could now become resistance.

Question is now, will this pattern still complete or will we see price move downwards from here on ? One thing I think we can exclude, is that price would move above the stop loss. Whether you want to enter now and have a reversed RR profile for target 1, or you want to look for an eventual completion, the choice is yours.

Whatever you do, make sure it matches your trading plan.
7 hours ago
JPN225, D Short
6 89
Very Strong run on the Nikkei Index after the Triangle(abcde) break_out, with recently, some signs of fatigue.
Potential AB=CD from 16/5/2014 Low. (Daily time_frame View)
Three drives potential pattern(Non-ideal), possible short term topping formation with Elliot Wave Ending Diagonal characteristics. ( converging Wedge )
Potential mean regression to Uptrend_line, possibility.
Below 20 sma(H4), with bearish divergence on the Daily RSI and MACD, Lower Daily candles.
With Fibonacci Weekly pivots.
This is counter Trend idea, so adds to risk. ( HH - HL formation intact )
21 hours ago
AUDUSD, D Neutral
1 113
Weekly view: From a weekly timeframe perspective, very little has changed over the past three months. The overall trend clearly still remains southbound, and the buyers and sellers continue to battle for position around a weekly demand area seen at 0.7449-0.7678.

Daily view: The daily timeframe shows that the daily swap level 0.7691 managed to provide support to the market from Tuesday onwards last week. Consequent to this, price closed the week (0.7814) attacking the 0.7841 region (17/04/15). If the buyers are successful this week in breaking above this high, the route north will highly likely be clear for a further advance up to the upper range boundary seen at 0.7875.

4hr view: Friday’s trading action saw the Aussie pair firmly close itself above the 0.7800 mark. However, before we all go hitting the buy buttons, we may have to contend with selling pressure from the high 0.7841 just mentioned above in our daily view.

Taking all of the above into account, we feel there’s a good chance the market will likely retest the 0.7800 barrier today. That being said, traders should be prepared for the possibility that this level may be faked lower down into the 4hr demand area coming in at 0.7763-0.7788 before we see any real buying pressure, if any. It would be at this point, we’d begin watching for lower timeframe buying strength to present itself. If it does, our team would consider an intraday buy position up to the 0.7850 mark.

Notice that the price action on the 4hr Aussie chart here is very similar to that of the Euro 4hr chart (see above). That being the case, should price reach the 0.7850 level this week, this will be where we shift into ‘short mode’. This number, along with other confluent factors gives us reason to believe this is where the 4hr minor uptrend will likely terminate and bears will take over. A short trade from this number is being considered for the following reasons:

1. Fresh 4hr supply (seen in green) coming in at 0.7883-0.7852, which coincides beautifully with a potential Bat Harmonic reversal zone (0.7850/0.7889).
2. The overall trend still remains southbound. Granted, price is still trading around weekly demand (see above) but with the way price has been behaving around this area the past few months does not exactly inspire buying confidence.
3. The 4hr supply zone also has additional resistive pressure from a daily swap level coming in at 0.7875.

Targets for any shorts here will be totally dependent on how price approaches this 4hr reversal zone.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 0.7800 region [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

• Sell orders: 0.7850/0.7889 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Stops will likely be placed above the 0.7900 round number).

21 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Short
0 210
Weekly view: Overall, the weekly timeframe still shows that the Euro is trending south, and has been for nearly a year now. Despite this, the weekly demand area seen at 1.0333-1.0502 has been able to support this market since mid-March. Last week’s trading did see a slight advance, but not really anything to get excited about since it has not really changed the overall structure of this timeframe. The outlook for this pair is still south in our opinion and will only change once/if a convincing push above weekly supply at 1.1449-1.1278 is seen.

Daily view: From the daily scale, we can see that price closed for the week (1.0865) just a stone’s throw away from a significant daily resistance zone at 1.1051-1.0918. This daily zone has managed to hold price lower on two occasions (26/03/15 – 06/04/15), therefore is an area that needs to be respected. Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe has to offer.

4hr view: The 1.0800 psychological number was clearly significant support for Friday’s sessions, which consequently saw prices whipsaw between this level and the 1.0900 hurdle above.

Today, and possibly into tomorrow will likely see further buying of the Euro currency. We believe this buying pressure will eventually break above 1.0900 to the 4hr supply area coming in at 1.0953-1.0922. This 4hr supply zone is extremely confluent in our opinion and is somewhere that we are very keen to look for confirmed shorting opportunities this week.

Reasons for considering a sell trade at the aforementioned 4hr supply area are as follows:

1. The round number 1.0900 will likely contain a ton of buy stops just above, from traders attempting to both fade and buy the breakout. Therefore, from a liquidity perspective – there will be plenty of buy orders available for well-funded traders to sell into.
2. Clean/fresh 4hr supply at 1.0953-1.0922.
3. Harmonic Gartley reversal zone – the 0.786 retracement positioned at the lower pink line at 1.0916, and the AB=CD completion located above at the upper pink line - 1.0985.
4. And finally, let’s not forget that this 4hr supply area is located within the aforementioned daily resistance zone.

The only grumble we have regarding the aforementioned 4hr supply zone is the buying pressure from the weekly demand area (see above) may push prices higher than expected, other than this, we believe this to be an A+ shorting setup. Targets will be different trader-to-trader, for us however, we’ll first be looking at 1.0900, once/if we manage to get below here, we’ll then look to 1.0800 as a first take-profit target.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: 1.0953-1.0922 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: depends on where one confirms this area).

11 hours ago
SPY, 240 Neutral
0 82
The $SPY is very close to a new record and it seems like everyone is waiting for a dovish statement from the Fed that will push $SPY above 212$.
If that'll be the case than near 214$ we have two harmonic patterns and the top of a daily Wedge that may create a good zone to monitor (targets for bulls, entry opportunity for bears).
$AAPL (which is also covered in this week's newsletters) could determine whether we will see a new high or not as it will report on Monday.

Read the full analysis and more interesting technical reviews in this week's newsletters:

http://marketzone.tumblr.com/post/117417460755/the-weekly-markets-analysis-26-4-15

Subscribe to the newsletters today:

http://www.themarketzone.net/#!wma/c1jxp

11 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Neutral
0 157
$EURUSD closed another strong week and it is just inside a resistance zone (below the 50 SMA line).
As we approach the FOMC and with no major news from Greece, the USD will take the leading role this week and we have two patterns to monitor.
Overall, I think that the $EURUSD will reach 1.12 to complete the blue pattern, but will it be without a pullback?

Read the full analysis and more interesting technical reviews in this week's newsletters:

http://marketzone.tumblr.com/post/117417460755/the-weekly-markets-analysis-26-4-15

Subscribe to the newsletters today:

http://www.themarketzone.net/#!wma/c1jxp

21 hours ago
USDJPY, D Long
0 139
Weekly view: For the past month or so, the buyers and sellers have been seen battling for position within a weekly demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40. Last week’s candle clearly showed that the bears overwhelmed the bulls within this zone, but as you can see, this was still not enough to close prices below the prior week’s low 118.56. Therefore, despite the disappointing performance seen from the buyers last week, our bias will remain north on this pair as long as price continues to hold within this weekly demand zone.

Daily view: From the daily scale, we can see that prices closed the week just above a daily trendline extended from the low 115.55, which also boasts additional supportive confluence from daily support coming in just below it at 118.62 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr view: Friday’s sell off that smashed through the 119.00 handle has helped complete what we believe the Harmonic technical community labels a Gartley bullish pattern. This, in our opinion could not have formed in a better place. The yellow zone depicts 4hr harmonic support – 0.786 XA retracement, an AB=CD equivalent pattern with beautiful market symmetry and a BC projection which complements the zone at 1.618. This supportive base, coupled with the fact that price is trading not only within weekly demand, but also around a daily support with a converging trendline (see above) makes this an incredibly confluent area of support in which to look for buy trades today/this week. If one is considering entering at market here, stops would be best placed below the X point 118.52. However, for us personally, lower timeframe confirming price action will still be required here. The reasons for why are simply because we have potential round-number resistance looming just above at 119.00. Therefore, waiting for the lower timeframes to confirm that buying interest exists here is, in our opinion, the best path to take.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 118.87/118.52 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Ideally below 118.52).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).


13 hours ago
GBPUSD, 240 Long
6 145
#GBPUSD Long Idea (Harmonics, 50sma, structure)

@TradeYodha
TradeYodha.com

Further to my initial analysis the which gave us 1:1 easily that zone has become a support zone now.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/bH97NqX6-GBPUSD-Short-ABCD-Harmonics-Structure/

Analysis:

1. This zone has been resistance zone in past
2. Market is in uptrend currently
3. On higher time frame (Daily) 50 sma is the zone which will act as support
4. Price is currently over stretched away from 10sma and is oversold so a retracement is expected.
5. 50sma is xlose to the zone

Trade Execution:

1. Have 2 orders
2. First order will have approx 1:1 R/R ratio. This will be limit order
3. The second order will have target higher at the completion of ABCD pattern giving us approx 1:2 R/R

News/Fundamentals:

27 April: 10:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations
28 April: 8:30am GBP Prelim GDP q/q
28 April: 2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence


I would love to hear your opinion, feel free to agree or disagree in your comments. Please give it a (thumsup) if it makes any sense.
18 hours ago
QQQ, 240 Neutral
0 45
If you are a market bull and you've read my analyses suggesting that for bulls $QQQ offers better opportunities than the $SPY, you should have seen these two Pinbars setups last week:
1) Pinbar on 105$ support zone
2) Pinbar after trend line breakout

These 4H pinbars are great setups to time an entry in your desired direction.
19 hours ago
NIFTY, D Short
2 86
Price structure is clearly week and making new lows.
This pattern should NOT be viewed as a down side target for Nifty .. but if price reaches point D, then it would be good risk reward setup for Longs.

Price point D is also particularly attractive as it marks post election result June 2014 high and a cluster of prior resistances in that zone.

For short term view see comments section below.
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